Were Ugandans Psychologically Prepared for Bobi Wine Presidency in 2021?
WERE UGANDAN PEOPLE MENTALLY READY FOR THE CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP IN THE 2021 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Monday, January 18, 2021 (PW) — African leaders are good at promoting systemic corruption and rigging election. Uganda is not the exception because a long-time incumbent president Yoweri K Museveni changed the constitution many times; he removed the term and age limit to qualify him as a presidential candidate. He often eliminates any condition that does not allow him to run. So if he can change any statutes that barred him from the ambition of becoming a president for life, what could prevent him from changing the election result if he loses? Regardless of whatever happened in this election, the question remains: Were Ugandan people ready for the leadership change at this moment? Even if we theoretically assumed they did, were they prepared to replaced 76 years old incumbent president with 38 years old ambitious Youth?
First, human beings, in their inherent nature, reject any change because of fear of uncertainty. Uganda has been stable for more than three decades: the economy is booming, especially after South Sudan’s independence; the real estate sectors, andmanufacturing sectors, such as steel and cement businesses, are growing significantly. Moreover, there is considerable development in the highways infrastructure, expanding the existence and construction of new roads is ongoing. Given the African countries’ history, most leaders are either corrupt to their core who accomplished nothing or immoral ones who accomplished little; the latter is less evil. Museveni hasmaintained the economy intact and achieved slow progress. Therefore, Ugandan People might have just decided to keep the devil they know.
Second, Robert Kyagulanyi’s age (famously known as Bobi Wine) might have discouraged some people from voting for him. It might seem ludicrous, but young age signifies a lack of life experiences in African mindsets. There is no president elected by the people at age less than 40 years old in African history. If Bobi Wine won this election, he would have become the youngest president in Ugandan and African. Those who came to power at a younger age either took control through a coup or inherited a family member’s presidency. Africans look at 38 years old as too young and lack the life’s experience necessary to run a country; besides his background as a musicianand never hold an executive position in any reputable organization. Although he is a parliament member, maybe it wasn’t enough to convince most Ugandans that he would deliver on the promises he made. All these factors cumulatively could have discouraged many traditional Ugandans from voting for him.
Third, Police brutality and voter suppression might have affected young voters’ turnout. Uganda has a population of more than 46 million, with an average age of almost 17 years. Although more than 52 percent of the Ugandan population age range from 15 to 64, only Nine million have participated in this presidential election. Given this statistic, the Youth turnout should have been high; they should have voted for Bobi Wine, or they must not have voted due to government voter suppression and intimidation. Therefore, the unbalanced field might have affected Bobi’s candidacy.
Fourth, the opposition parties and independent candidates’ failure to rally behind Bobi Wine has divided their efforts. Apart from Bobi, there were four opposition parties and six independents presidential candidates. If the other political parties and independents candidates formed an alliance thatsupported a single candidate, the opposition would have run a close competitive election. However, since the opposition parties are unwilling to put their differences aside to launch a vigorous campaign against the incumbent president, Museveniwill remain in power either for life or until he decided not to run anymore.
Finally, defeating the incumbent president with unlimited financial resources and absolute freedom to use government institutions to his advantage is extremely difficult but not impossible. President Museveni has used the organized forces and the courts to intimate his opponents and opposition supporters. More than 54 people have lost their lives in the runoff to the election, including Bobi’s bodyguard. The incumbent president controlled the media houses such as newspapers, television, radio, and even the internet. When he feels losing an online campaign, he shouts down the internet. Moreover, given the poverty in Uganda, some people are willing to vote for those who pay more. These factors made it difficult for Bobi Wine to win the election.
In conclusion, Although Bobi Wine could defeat the incumbent president Museveni, however, it was challenging for him to overcome the following barriers: People skeptical about change and fear of uncertainty; African mindset about young age, which means inexperience; institutional voter suppression, and intimidation; oppositions division, and unbalance election field. However, Bobi wine did well in this election. By the next election, he would be 43 years old, which will boost his electability among people who did not favor him in the 2021 presidential election because of his age. Therefore, to win the next presidential election, Bobi Wine needs to forge an opposition alliance under his leadership to mobilize the Youth to turn out in big numbers.
The author, Francis M. Malwal, is a South Sudanese based in Houston, Texas, USA. He can be reached via his email: E.mail.francismalwal@gmail.com
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