The Politics of Sudd Swamp and Oil formation in South Sudan

By Fidel Mareng Makwei, Juba, South Sudan

Tuesday, 05 July 2022 (PW) — There has been a fierce debate in recent months regarding the dredging of the Naam river and the resumption of digging of the Jonglei Canal on social media. This has forced the government officials to acknowledge that the government of South Sudan has approved the dredging of rivers in South Sudan and the resumption of the Jonglei Canal project. The fierce criticism of the projects from citizens who believed they were of national significance but undertaken in the darkness angered government officials. They referred to South Sudanese with negative views on the dredging of rivers and digging of Jonglei Canal as social media criminals.

This was a sign of frustration from those who believe the project should be implemented and public opposition appears to be a threat to their interest. However, all South Sudanese have an interest in the resumption of the Jonglei, and as such, they should be entitled to present their views of the project. As concerned South Sudanese, I would like also to present my view in the light of the Sudd swamp and the formation of oil and the potential consequences of the destruction of the Sudd swamp on the future formation of oil resources. This article will emphasise the impacts of digging of Jonglei Canal.

First and foremost, the literature indicates that the digging of the Jonglei canal was the brainchild of the former British colonial condominium ruling Sudan and it is not the intention to review the literature on the Jonglei Canal and we know very well that it was one of the reasons of rebellion and a cause of 21 years civil war in Sudan. The Jonglei Canal was to deviate the volume of waters that flow to the Sudd wetland and increase the flow of water downstream to Sudan and Egypt (Allam et al.,2018). The Nile River branches into Bahr el Jebel and Bahr el Zaraf where its empty large volume of water into the floodplain forms the Sudd Swamp. The intention of the Jonglei Canal was to bypass Sudd Swamp (the largest water body in the world) by digging a canal from Mongalla and the joint Nile at Malakal (Figure 1).

Allam et al. (2018) review the advantages and disadvantages of the Jonglei. The following are advantages and disadvantages:

1. Advantages
2. save significant amounts of water lost to evaporation and transpiration.
3. reduce the risk of flooding in the neighbouring region
4. increase the availability of grazing land
5. provide a navigation link between the three countries
6.  provide an all-weather road along one bank of the canal
7.  Enhance trade between the three countries and provide job opportunities for local people
8. reduce the prevalence of disease vectors
9.  boost socio-economic development.

B. Disadvantages

1. negative effects on flora and fauna in the Sudd region,
2.  increased conflict over pasture between tribes,
3. the canal can become a barrier between villages,
4.  changing the paths of animal migrations,
5. drop in groundwater levels,
6.  affecting the hydrological system and reducing rainfall in the region
7.  affecting water quality and sediment transportation.

Obviously, this project was designed without consideration for the livelihood of people in South Sudan and it was not for the benefit of South Sudanese. There seem to be more advantages than disadvantages, however, what matters is the severity of the consequences.

 Let us look at the paradox of the hydrological system of Sudd Swamp. First, the impetus of the Jonglei Canal was to give water to Egypt and Sudan. It is claimed that the canal would prevent the loss of water in the Sudd region through evapotranspiration and therefore channelling water through the canal to Sudan and Egypt would be a solution.

The studies also concluded that the implementation of the canal will affect Nile and Sudd hydrology and reduce rainfall. That means with a canal in place there will be the least evapotranspiration and least rainfall in South Sudan and surrounding areas. What is not emphasised in these studies on the Jonglei canal is that evapotranspiration is inherently part of water recycling and water that is lost through these processes comes back as rain, and in a real sense, it is not lost.  

This water would be lost completely when it is channelled through the canal to Egypt and into the Mediterranean Sea. I do not have information on convectional rainfall contribution to South Sudan from the Mediterranean seas. But I believe it does not exceed the rainfall contribution from Sudd Swamp. The convectional rainfall from Sudd Swamp accounts for much of the rainfall in the region of South Sudan.

Bypassing of Sudd Swamp will have more severe consequences for the people of South Sudan than those in Sudan and Egypt. The loss of ecosystem and disappearance of biodiversity of the Sudd swamp, drought-induced famine due to lack of convectional rainfall and lost Sudd wetland will have ripple effects on the human population and wildlife in South Sudan and neighbouring countries. The literature indicates that the Sudd swamp could shrink by up to 30% if it is bypassed by the Jonglei canal. Other studies indicated the swamp could only shrink by 10%.

However, the method used for estimation of these figures are only hydrological models and have significant errors of uncertainties. It is possible that the Sudd wetland could lose more than 50% of its coverage. This is possible because if you look at the Jonglei (Figure 1), it bypasses Sudd. The flow of the Nile will deviate after Mongalla. It is likely that the flow to the Sudd could be reduced by almost 50% if the design is a 50/50 split of the flow. Another risk that could further reduce this flow is developed in the upstream countries like Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi that will utilise the Nile water for domestic consumption like irrigation and damping.

If we look at the design of the Jonglei Canal, it passes through the countryside from Kongor through to Malakal. The studies by Allam et al. (2018) have failed to indicate potential flooding and displacement of people by flood from canals. It is in my opinion that the canal could induce flooding which is intended to solve in the first place. Therefore, canal-induced flooding is likely a disadvantage that should be on the list against the Jonglei canal.

Although many impacts of the Jonglei canal are obvious and have been present by many researchers, some impacts have subsequence subtle impacts. One of these subtle impacts is associated with the loss of Sudd wetland flora and fauna and the potential consequence on the formation of oil resources in South Sudan for future generations.

Petroleum is a fossil fuel that results from decomposition under high temperatures and pressures of dead organisms that have been buried underground for millions of years. The high temperatures and pressures heat up organic matter to produce liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon. The majority of gases are lost to the atmosphere and liquid hydrocarbon (petroleum) then flows to voids in the earth’s crust, in this case, Nubian Sandstone aquifers underlying that region, to form oil deposits.  

It is important to note that plant materials are responsible for the geological formation of two important fossil fuels, that is coal which is formed from hard woody plant materials and oil which is formed from zooplankton, algae, pollens, spores, and soft plant tissues like leaves. It is known that a lot of oil deposits are from ancient lakes or coastlines. The Sudd swamp was vital for the formation of petroleum deposits in South Sudan due to its abundant flora and fauna millions of years ago.

If we look at the current oil-rich region in South Sudan (Figure 3), they are mainly concentrated along “toch” area around the Nile and Sudd region. This is not just a coincidence, it is likely that over millions of years ago, the Sudd extended to those regions. One can postulate that the formation of petroleum oil in South Sudan is due to the accumulation of dead vegetation from the Sudd wetland millions of years ago. Currently, the Sudd wetland has one of the greatest biomass generations and its entire ecosystem was the source of petroleum oil that we have today in South Sudan.

Therefore, the natural endowment of the Sudd wetland to South Sudan is not a curse but a blessing. The destruction of that ecosystem means the destruction of the resources for future generations. This argument is aligned with sustainability and responsibility use of natural resources. The current generation of South Sudan should use the natural resources for their benefit without destroying them so that the next generation can also use them.

Dredging the Nile tributaries will not solve rising food prices in South Sudan

The formation of oil deposit in South Sudan for the next millions of years would not benefits the current generations. But one cannot say for sure that there will be no human in South Sudan at that time to benefits from it.

Therefore, it can be concluded that:

• The evapotranspiration does not result into complete loss of water because it is hydrological process that sustain Sudd wetland and Nile (water cycle), the loss will occur when this water is drain to Mediterranean Sea.
• Sudd wetland was the source of oil resources, it is the real gift of the Nile to South Sudan and the implementation of the Jonglei Canal will likely result in the loss of the Sudd swamp and as a result, it can lead to the loss of natural process responsible for oil formation in the Sudd region.
• The severity of the disadvantages outweighs the benefits of this project to South Sudan.
• The canal could induce flooding which is intended to control in the first place.

It is recommended that:

• The resumption of digging of the Jonglei canal is stopped and subjected to a serious study because the severity of the disadvantages is far greater than the advantages.
• The Sudd swamp is the national heritage and it only its kind in the world and should be heritage listed with UNESCO if it this not happened.
• The heritage listing of the Sudd Wetland will protect it from destruction. Egypt has an interest in water only not the welfare of South Sudan and Sudd wetland and the destruction of Sudd Swamp is akin to destruction of Egyptian Pyramids.
• The Sudd wetland should be protected even from national developmental projects that are deemed destructive to the ecosystem of wetland as indicated by impacts assessment.

References

Mariam M. Allam, Hesham Bekhit, Alaa M. Elzawahry and Mohamed Nasr Allam (2018). Jonglei Canal Project Under Potential Developments in the Upper Nile States Cairo University. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C448

The author, Fidele Mareng Makuei, is he concerned citizen of South Sudan who likes to share his views on the issue of the Jonglei canal. He can be reached at fmareng@yahoo.co.uk

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