Why Opposition Parties Should Learn to Understand the Strengths and Exploit the Weaknesses of President Kiir’s Regime in South Sudan

Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of the SPLM-IG is the strength of the opposition groups in South Sudan.

By Hon. Juol Nhomngek Daniel, Juba, South Sudan

Wednesday, 27 July 2022 (PW) — I am privileged to be a member of the Opposition (and the SPLM-IO in particular) in South Sudan. Being a member of the Opposition has taught me a great deal. I have discovered some things that if I say them openly, may be construed as abuse. Thus, I prefer to not mention them in this article. However, one thing that I must expose in this article is the limitation of opposition groups to accepting that for every action there is an equal but opposite force. I love the above third law of my favourite great scientist by the name of Newton, who once made such an observation in his adventure in science. Actually, I used to love physical science when I was in high school. I even taught them in the lower second secondary. Because of the knowledge and love that I have for science, I sometimes look at myself as having become a lawyer by chance, though I picked an interest in law in the process.

But the issue of science is not the subject of this article. The subject of this article is our approach to politics as opposition groups in South Sudan. This article is therefore part of my reflections on opposition politics in South Sudan. It is important to remind ourselves as members of the opposition that when we entered politics at various points in time, we had a vision and a mission that drove us to disagree with the government. I am hundred per cent sure that before we joined a particular opposition group, we took time to think through the implications of such a decision on our political journey and lives. I am sure we did not join because we wanted to be in Parliament or to get government posts or because of money. At least I am confident that some of us have been making such a statement every time we are confronted with moral arguments and questions over the relationship between resources and politics.

Money is, in fact, the greatest asset in politics, but it should, however, be the goal of our political mission. For this reason, I have reached the conclusion that being in Parliament or in any government post might have been incidental to the main mission of the opposition in South Sudan, though we have not yet realized that fact. Conventionally, the opposition parties are supposed to be oversight bodies that ensure checks and balances exist in the system. In recognition of the statement in the foregoing paragraph, we, the members of the Opposition Groups, must always safeguard our mission of fighting for change or reforms of the system, either through regime change or reforms of the system. As a matter of fact, we have now chosen the reforms of the system as we are struggling for the Revitalized Agreement to be implemented.

At least the Revitalized Agreement, if implemented, can enable South Sudanese to establish or cause the establishment of the accounting system in the country. The reforms to make the system more accountable to the common people must be the guiding principle for all the opposition groups, irrespective of the side they stand on.  The fact that opposition groups have one thing in common, that is opposing policies that disenfranchise the public, is the factor of unity among the opposition, and it is an affirmation of the belief that we, the members of the opposition, are interested in seeing a just and fair system for the people of the country. This flows from the fact that once we have taken the decision to be in opposition, we must know that we are no longer free people to enjoy what the other side of politics offers.

In the politics of the opposition, there is a need for the members of the opposition to be alert all the time as every move on the government side is intended to achieve a certain objective to their advantage. If they give a lot of money, be careful that the money has a purpose. Also, be careful if the government restricts the flow of money. There must be a reason for those restrictions.  We should always observe and closely monitor the developments in the political spheres, as politics is a game of interest. Being a game of interest implies that any move in politics on the side of the government against or in favour of the opposition has a purpose. It is for the government’s advantage.

As I have already stated at the opening of this article, I have learned many things since I joined the opposition some years back. The good thing is that when I decided to join the opposition, I made a promise that I would oppose anything that was not in the interest of the people of South Sudan. I must stand by that promise. The promise I made to the people of South Sudan to oppose on their behalf is a debt that I owe them, and I must repay them by observing it. What is funny in politics, as I have learned in the process, is that politicians make extravagant promises just to get what they want, and at that point, since it is cheaper at that point in time as there is no opportunity cost.

However, once in power, where we find ourselves making a choice between two competing interests, political decisions become very costly. In most cases, politicians find it easier to breach political promises since their breach does not attract liability, and after all, even if there is a liability, the politicians believe that they will use the money to solve those problems caused by the failure to keep promises. Funny enough, politicians dishonestly make oral promises from their oral manifestos that revolve around reforms and the protection of the interests of the people. For instance, during the formation of the Government of National Unity in February 2020, we were campaigning seriously to go to Parliament or to be appointed to different government posts. In the course of long campaigns, we made many promises to our leaders, who had the power to appoint us to Parliament and other government posts. We indeed made beautiful and flowery promises.

Nonetheless, as soon as we were selected and appointed, the reality became clear. We shut up to avoid problems that come when we speak on behalf of our people. We become stranded between saving our jobs, protecting the interests of our people, and representing our parties. I am, in fact, always amazed when I sit at the periphery of the political forum in Parliament or read some comments in our different WhatsApp groups.  From my observations, I concluded from interactions with different politicians in the political arena in South Sudan that the majority of the politicians in South Sudan are not concerned about the welfare of the people as they are ready to sacrifice everything to save their jobs. I have come to this conclusion because some such people are scared to speak out openly. Moreover, they blamed those who come out openly to oppose the system, and in other cases, they even conspire with those in power against the masses and also against those who talk on behalf of the people in politics.

When I reflect on the behavior of some members of opposition groups in Juba, I come to realize that their mission is to go into the government and to be accommodated there. This is the concept of the SPLM-IG and the public. I think this is where the SPLM-IG misunderstood the whole thing, with a misleading impression concerning the mission of the opposition in South Sudan. For the SPLM-IG think that everyone is looking for a way to be in the system, and for the same reason, they think that those who are already in the system must keep quiet.

It is not surprising to find the SPLM-IG using all means to keep those in the system silent, either through bribery, force or even blackmail of being removed from the government. Sometimes, they keep on wondering by asking, “What are they looking for again, yet they are in the system?” This question shows that the SPLM-IG believes that the opposition is only looking for power and resources. It is with the same ignorance that we see the SPLM-IG buying off members of the opposition to intentionally destroy the unity of the opposition. The SPLM-IG, in fact, has misunderstood the goal of the opposition. Also, members of the opposition who accept bribery to the extent of abandoning their mission have not understood their goal of being in opposition. The opposition at this stage becomes a goal to save an individual soul and political posts, which makes them lose the agendum (the party) and the people.

Nonetheless, I cannot blame some of our opposition members who are worried about losing their seats or political posts because some of us entered politics for different reasons. Joining politics without a goal makes us fail to take time to study the enemy that we, as the opposition, are dealing with. As politicians who are ready for a fight, the most important thing is to know and understand the character and nature of the enemy we are confronting. In other words, it is important to know the strengths and weaknesses of the other party, which can help us strengthen our side. Knowing the character, interest, and nature of the other party can help us to avoid playing its own game and, by mistake, playing ourselves into its jaw. As members of the SPLM-IO and other opposition groups, it is important that we first know the strengths and weaknesses of the SPLM-IG in order for us to succeed against it.  

My studies and observations have found that the strengths of the SPLM-IG lie in three areas. These are: first, its firm control over national resources and monopoly over power, which is rooted in the ideology of tribal politics; second, poverty, ignorance of the public of their civic rights and duties; and third, the personalization of the SPLM-IG. The SPLM-IG is not a political party, rather it operates as a partnership of a group that does not care about anything apart from getting resources and maintaining a grip on power.  The foregoing three points are the strengths of the SPLM-IG. They are interconnected as they operate in vicious cycles and keep on feeding into each other. For instance, in order to maintain control over resources and monopoly over tribal power, the SPLM-IG can do anything within its disposal to make sure that it remains in dominance. Corruption is one of the tools used to maintain resources and power. The SPLM-IG loathes the public though they are ready to use the public in their defence, which is part of their ignorance of the public.  It is for this reason that the SPLM-IG uses the people and later throws them away if they are no longer useful to its mission.

It is the same reason the SPLM-IG does not want people who expose its weaknesses to the public. The SPLM-IG is not a political party, but it is a quasi-religious organization that is built on the fear and ignorance of the public. The SPLM-IG abhors opposition because it exposes its weaknesses to the public. Thus, it becomes restless once there is strong opposition, and it can sacrifice the future of the country just to destroy that opposition in order to remain in control. The SPLM-IG does not even spare its own members. For that reason, it has now destroyed all its cadres because of the ideas they have that could potentially deprive it of its current nature of power and firm negative control over resources. The SPLM-IG does not like the neutral ideology, which is the ideology that is objective. Rather, it only looks at and coopts those who do not oppose it, no matter how weak they may be, provided they may champion the corrupting system.

Having pointed out the weaknesses of the SPLM-IG above, it is important to state that for any opposition to defeat it, they must understand the strengths of the SPLM-IG and hit hard at the opposite of those strengths. Therefore, for us as the SPLM-IO and other opposition in Juba to defeat or weaken the SPLM-IG, we must first agree that the SPLM-IG is not a political party but a conspiracy group of individuals whose interests are not in line with the national interest. As I have pointed out above, the SPLM-IG is not a political party as there is no unity within. This point is important because, once we realize it, we shall know that we are dealing with personalities, not political parties. This means that weakening personalities means weakening the SPLM-IG itself.

 As I have already pointed out in this discussion, the strengths of the SPLM-IG are tribalism, monopoly over tribal politics, power, and money. The SPLM-IG has established a system based on these three things, which makes the country and its future irrelevant to it. Hence, it can kill any person, or it can destroy anything, no matter how that person or that resource is useful to the country now or in the future, as long as it is against it or it cannot serve its interests. The SPLM-IG uses resources to maintain a grip on power and uses the same power to take resources through dubious means backed by threats and bribery. It is the reason the SPLM-IG will accept rebellion is to its advantage.  It is the same reason ordinary politics or force will never defeat the SPLM-IG. Thus, for the SPLM-IO and other oppositions to defeat the SPLM-IG, we must adopt one of the following three methods:

First is the use of force, which we do not advise anyone to adopt due to the tribal nature of the conflict as well as it being illegal under the law. At present, South Sudan is founded on quasi-tribal nations, which are protected by state sovereignty. This makes it hard for anyone to change the system through force, and even other countries cannot intervene because such intervention may destroy the nation itself. It is for the same reason that the UN Security Council cannot declare South Sudan a threat to international peace and security, no matter how many people may be suffering. The tribal nature of the country plus other factors makes the use of force to remove the government in South Sudan impracticable.

Second, another method that the opposition should consider is the use of media outlets to communicate their agenda to the public. There is a need for the Opposition to adopt massive public campaigns through all media outlets as a way of fighting against public ignorance. Tribalism grows from public ignorance, and if it is to be eliminated, we must educate the public. The SPLM-IO and other opposition groups need to be constantly in touch with the public through a civil society approach. However, it is my surprise to some of our opposition members despise this approach as not being parliamentarian. Unfortunately, what is considered “parliamentary” is not defined by them. They do not know that it is not Parliamentarian to lose contact with the public. Hence, once the SPLM-IG has power and control over the national media such as SSBC and other official media outlets, we, as oppositions must get the other the easiest and uncontrollable means to reach the public.

Thus, in South Sudan, like in other third-world countries, the method of civil society is where the power of the opposition relies on. What we must know is that without using all legal or peaceful means to expose the weaknesses of the SPLM-IG to the Public so that we shift public opinion against them, we cannot easily defeat it instead it can wrong us and at the same time use the Public to judge us as troublemakers. As a matter of fact, we must run away from security politics where we follow each other in the darkness and run into the darkness when the public becomes aware. The power of the opposition is in public opinion, and for that reason, we must always be closer to the public. Hence, we must be interested in bringing the SPLM-IG to the public and beating their hands up as they do not have the idea to defend themselves in public. What those who sympathize with the SPLM-IG need to know is that the SPLM-IG is a ruthless and merciless organization that can sacrifice anyone including its members just to maintain its control over power and resources. Ideas do not appeal to an organization like the SPLM-IG, founded on personalities, as the only weapon that they have is force and money. The SPLM-IG can be reformed through strong sustained pressure from the public.

In that light, it is hard to implement the Revitalized Agreement, which is built on ideas of national building contrary to the ideology of the SPLM-IG. It is likely to give power back to the people and, by implication, deprive them of a monopoly over power and resources. Therefore, if we need the Revitalized Agreement to be implemented, we must be black and white in dealing with the personalities in the SPLM-IG. In fact, those individuals in the leadership of the SPLM-IG are in alliance with each other to rob the country by force but not to build the nation. 

It is in relation to the foregoing explanation that we must be aware that when in opposition, we must oppose. We must be real opposites without being involved in politics. This implies that we must be ready to use all peaceful means in our struggle to educate the public, which may even include sacrifices. We as members of the Oppositions should not be concerned about the methods, we use to educate the public as long as the message we are communicating is based on truth and the method is peaceful. We must be ready to get the correct information and publish such information to the public, including the naming and shaming of individuals who are behind the destruction of the country. In fact, social media is very effective and if the opposition can adopt and use it to the maximum, change can come easily as the public can understand in detail the issues affecting South Sudan. It is for this reason the SPLM-IG is sensitive to the media because it weakens its popularity, which is built on the ignorance of our people.  

When I talk about the ignorance of the public, the public needs to understand that it is not abuse but a lack of information that makes an individual member of the public believe and act prejudicially without clear information. As a matter of fact, it is because of ignorance that we support our relatives or tribemates in politics. If we are to overcome public ignorance, we must make good use of media to educate the public.  Moreover, the elimination of public ignorance can enable citizens to question the SPLM-IG in the manner it is managing the country which will make it more accountable to people since they will be able to question it.

In short, the strengths of the SPLM-IG are money without ideology, which is only used for buying oppositions or critics, second, the SPLM-IG uses poverty, illiteracy, and tribalism supported by fear and ignorance of the majority to maintain power; third, the personalization of the SPLM-IG party, which makes it more of a partnership than a political party with an independent ideology; and fourth, the public is highly uninformed as it is not aware of its civil rights and duties. For the opposition to defeat or weaken the SPLM-IG, it only has two options as already emphasized above.

The opposition must undertake a serious campaign to use all possible and peaceful means to inform and educate the general public on their civil rights and duties. This must be accompanied by economic reforms so that the citizens are empowered financially so that they are independent, which needs a long-term approach. The opposition must adopt the method of naming and shaming of corrupt individuals on the side of the SPLM-IG, which means that the members of the opposition must also be beyond reproach. Otherwise, if the members of the opposition are condemning the SPLM-IG but doing the same things, their condemnation will be unfair.

The author, Juol Nhomngek Daniel, is a member of the SPLM-IO party under Dr Riek Machar and a national MP in the Transitional National Legislative Assembly in Juba and can be reached through: nhomngekjuol@gmail.com.

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