In the Crosshairs: The Impacts of Street Fighting in Khartoum, Sudan, on South Sudan

By PW Staff Writer, Juba, South Sudan

Tuesday, 25 April 2023 (PW) — South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is facing a critical juncture as it prepares for elections in 2024 amid ongoing violence, humanitarian crises, and human rights violations. The country, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war, has been mired in another conflict since 2013 when President Salva Kiir accused his former deputy Riek Machar of plotting a coup. A peace deal signed in 2018 has led to the formation of a unity government, but the implementation of key provisions has been slow and fragile.

According to the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), violence against civilians rose by two per cent in 2022, affecting more than 1.6 million people. Intercommunal clashes, attacks by armed groups, and human rights abuses by security forces have contributed to the insecurity and suffering of the population. The violence has also disrupted humanitarian access and delivery, leaving millions needing food, water, health care, and protection. The UN estimates that 7.2 million people face acute food insecurity, while 1.4 million children suffer from acute malnutrition.

The UN and other international actors have urged the South Sudanese parties to accelerate the implementation of the peace agreement, especially on issues such as security sector reform, transitional justice, and constitutional review. They have also called for an end to impunity for crimes committed during the conflict and for respect for human rights and civic space. The UN Human Rights Council recently heard from a commission of inquiry that documented cases of killings, rapes, torture, abductions, and forced recruitment of children by various actors in South Sudan.

In addition to the internal challenges, South Sudan is also affected by regional dynamics and developments. The country relies on Sudan for exporting its oil, which is its main source of revenue, but the recent unrest and violence in Sudan have raised concerns about the stability and security of both countries. South Sudan has also deployed troops to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as part of a regional force to combat rebel groups in the eastern part of the country. Furthermore, South Sudan hosts more than 300,000 refugees from neighbouring countries, mainly from Sudan’s Darfur region.

As South Sudan approaches its 12th anniversary of independence in July 2023, many observers hope it will seize the opportunity to consolidate its peace process and address its humanitarian and human rights challenges. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently said, “South Sudan sits at a fork in the road” and that “2023 is a make-or-break year”. He urged the international community to support South Sudan’s efforts to achieve a stable and democratic future for its people.

The outbreak of street fighting in Khartoum, Sudan

The recent outbreak of violence in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, has raised concerns about the fate of South Sudan, which seceded from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war. The fighting, which began on April 15, is between the army and a paramilitary force called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), both of which were involved in the coup that toppled a civilian government in October 2021. The clashes have killed hundreds of people, displaced thousands more and disrupted humanitarian aid and trade routes.

South Sudan, one of the world’s poorest and most fragile countries, depends heavily on Sudan for its oil exports, which account for most of its revenue. The oil is produced in the south but transported through pipelines across Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Any disruption to this arrangement could devastate South Sudan’s economy and stability.

South Sudan also shares a long and porous border with Sudan, along which many ethnic and armed groups operate. The two countries have a history of mutual interference and support for each other’s rebels, which could escalate if the situation in Khartoum deteriorates further. South Sudan is already struggling with internal conflicts, political divisions, and humanitarian crises, which have left millions needing assistance.

The international community, which has invested heavily in both countries’ peace process and development, has expressed alarm over the fighting in Khartoum and urged both sides to respect a ceasefire and resume dialogue. The United Nations, the African Union and regional powers have also called for a return to civilian rule and a democratic transition in Sudan, which could pave the way for improved relations with South Sudan and greater regional stability.

The impact of Khartoum fighting on South Sudan

The ongoing fighting in Khartoum, Sudan, between rival military factions has serious implications for the political, economic and security situation of its southern neighbour, South Sudan.

South Sudan gained its independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of civil war that left millions dead and displaced. However, the new nation soon plunged into its internal conflict along ethnic lines, which only ended with a fragile peace agreement in 2020. Since then, South Sudan has struggled to implement the deal and rebuild its economy and institutions.

One of the main challenges facing South Sudan is its dependence on oil exports for revenue. The country has the third-largest oil reserves in sub-Saharan Africa, but it relies on a pipeline that runs through Sudan to reach the international market. Any disruption or damage to this pipeline could have devastating consequences for South Sudan’s budget and ability to pay its debts.

The fighting in Khartoum poses a serious threat to this vital lifeline. According to reports, the clashes have reached the vicinity of the oil ministry and the pipeline terminal in Port Sudan. Moreover, the violence has disrupted both countries’ air travel and humanitarian access, making it harder for South Sudan to receive essential goods and services.

Another challenge facing South Sudan is its security situation. The country still faces sporadic attacks from rebel groups that have not joined the peace process and intercommunal violence over land and resources. The instability in Sudan could exacerbate these problems by creating a power vacuum and a potential influx of weapons and fighters across the border.

South Sudan also has a stake in the political outcome of the conflict in Sudan. The two countries share a long history and a common culture; many have relatives and friends on both sides of the border. South Sudan’s government has tried to mediate between the warring parties in Sudan, but its divisions and lack of leverage have hampered its efforts.

South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, has expressed his support for Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the coup leader that ousted Sudan’s civilian-led government in October 2021. Kiir sees Burhan as a guarantor of stability and cooperation between the two countries, especially on oil and border issues. However, some of Kiir’s rivals and allies have sided with Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This powerful paramilitary group is challenging Burhan’s authority.

Hemedti has played a key role in facilitating the peace deal in South Sudan by hosting talks between Kiir and his former vice president turned rebel leader Riek Machar. Hemedti also has strong ties with some of South Sudan’s ethnic groups and political factions, as well as regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. His supporters see him as a more charismatic and pragmatic leader than Burhan.

The split among South Sudan’s elites over whom to back in Sudan could undermine their unity and commitment to implementing their peace agreement. It could also alienate some of their international partners who have different views on the situation in Sudan. For instance, the US and the EU condemned Burhan’s coup and called for a return to civilian rule, while Russia and China supported Burhan’s legitimacy.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the fighting in Khartoum has far-reaching consequences for South Sudan’s political, economic and security interests. South Sudan needs a stable and cooperative neighbour to survive and develop. However, the conflict in Sudan is complex and unpredictable, and South Sudan has limited influence and resources to shape its outcome.

Therefore, South Sudan should strengthen its internal cohesion and resilience while engaging constructively with all parties in Sudan and seeking regional and international support to resolve the crisis peacefully.

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