The current conflict in the Sudan is already being felt in South Sudan
Deng Duot Bior-Barr is a South Sudanese PhD law student at the University of Dundee in Scotland, UK.
By Deng Duot Bior-Barr, Dundee, Scotland, UK
Thursday, May 11, 2023 (PW) — The conflict broke out in Khartoum and several other cities across Sudan on April 15th, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. Army’s Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the RSF’s Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known by his nickname, Hemedti.
Tensions between the two leaders had escalated since they joined forces during the 2019 coup against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, centring on the RSF’s refusal to integrate into the army and its power ramp-up.
Since the beginning of the conflict on April 15th, 2023, when clashes broke out in western Sudan, in the capital city of Khartoum, and the Darfur region, about 700 people have been killed and over 5,100 injured. The impact would be, however; be the devastating and far-reaching economic and social impact on the two sisterly countries.
Sudan has a long history of conflicts, and the recent conflict in the Darfur region has left millions of people displaced and vulnerable to violence, hunger, and disease. Therefore, the current situation will replace people and have lots of negative impacts on the two countries and, more significantly, on South Sudan, which has more refugees living in Sudan for almost ten years after the Civil War in South Sudan.
The impact of this conflict on South Sudan would likely include Human loss and suffering. The most immediate effect of this conflict would be the loss of human life. Mostly the civilians in the two sisterly countries will continuously remain in war zones and likely suffer from increased violence and displacement, leading to humanitarian crises on a large scale.
The civilian will continuously suffer from displacement because war has displaced many people from their homes, leaving them vulnerable to threats like hunger, disease, and abuse. As of now, it has already displaced tens of thousands of people in Sudan because of ongoing conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan.
According to the United Nations Humanitarian Commission for Refugees, about 334,000 individuals have been displaced within Sudan since fighting began, and it is estimated that over 100,000 people — including Sudanese as well as (returning) refugees and migrants from other countries — have been recorded leaving the country.
This conflict will bring economic impacts on the two countries. According to the world report of 2020, Sudan and South Sudan’s economy has become more fragile because of civil war and the coronavirus pandemic. Also, since South Sudan’s independence in 2011, the country has suffered severe droughts (2011, 2015) and floods (2014, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022), resulting in high numbers of casualties, displacements, and loss of livestock — severely impacting people’s livelihoods.
South Sudan remains in a severe humanitarian crisis. Besides that, the current conflict would exacerbate that fragility. It will also aggravate the country’s economic and social disparities and hurt the global economy.
It also has a long-term impact on the instability of the two countries because they have experienced a period of relatively unstable government after decades of conflict, which would destabilise the slight progress achieved in South Sudan and will cause long-lasting repercussions for these two countries and regions at large.
The main downside to growth is disruptions to the peace process, fluctuations in oil export and prices, aftershocks of COVID-19, and climate change effects within the country.
In addition, it will also bring about Human rights violations: In most cases, the conflict would always result in widespread human rights violations, including forced displacement, sexual violence, arbitrary detention, and extrajudicial killings.
Whilst that the impact of the current conflict in Sudan would be catastrophic, leading to significant loss of life and displacement, economic and social disparities, long-term instability, and human rights violations.
The author, Deng Duot Bior-Barr, is a South Sudanese PhD law student at the University of Dundee in Scotland, UK, and can be reached via his email address: Deng Duot (PG Research) <j.duot@dundee.ac.uk>
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