Failure to hold the election in South Sudan will only benefit the ruling elites
Deng Duot Bior-Barr is a South Sudanese PhD law student at the University of Dundee in Scotland, UK.
By Deng Duot Bior-Barr, Dundee, Scotland
Tuesday, 10 September 2024 (PW) — Although conducting elections in South Sudan is unrealistic, the country faces significant challenges that require resolution. Political stability, security, and substantial international support are essential to ensuring a credible and peaceful electoral process. However, failing to hold the 2024 election in South Sudan will probably have significant and wide-ranging consequences, affecting the country’s political landscape, governance structures, and citizens’ confidence in democratic processes.
Other potential ramifications may include political instability and prolonged transitional government: South Sudan has been under transitional governance since the 2018 Peace Agreement. Failure to conduct scheduled elections could extend the transitional period, engendering frustrations between political factions and the populace or the risk of conflict.
Even if the postponement or cancellation of elections may seem beneficial to the government elites because of the lack of resources to conduct the election or implement the 2018 peace accords, it may also exacerbate grievances among opposition groups, potentially precipitating renewed violence and civil unrest.
It could trigger a lack of legitimacy or a crisis. The incumbent government’s legitimacy may be scrutinised if it continues to govern without an electoral mandate, potentially diminishing its confidence in leadership. It will also enable the international community, particularly donors and organisations supporting peace processes, to reduce their support if they perceive the government failing to uphold democratic processes. This will create social unrest and public discontent among South Sudanese citizens expecting elections, and they may become disillusioned by the political process, potentially leading to protests and civil unrest.
The absence of political representation could further deteriorate, and social and economic conditions may need to be improved. It will breed more marginalised communities and groups that perceive exclusion from power-sharing arrangements, which could experience increased marginalisation, exacerbating tensions among ethnic and political factions and resulting in an economic crisis. South Sudan’s economy relied heavily on oil production, which the elite has continuously enjoyed.
It could be arguable that failure to conduct this election will add to the Economic Consequences of Loss of Aid and Investment: international donors and investors may withdraw financial support if the country deviates from democratic norms, potentially affecting fragile economic recovery. In addition, continued economic stagnation and prolonged transitional government could impede the implementation of necessary reforms and development programmes, hindering economic growth.
Although the peace agreement undermined fragile peace, the 2018 peace agreement was contingent upon critical milestones, such as elections, to stabilise the country. Thus, failure to conduct elections may undermine peace agreements, resulting in a loss of confidence among potential signatories. Delays in reconciliation and other national reconciliation efforts may be impeded in the absence of elections, and critical reforms such as constitution-making and security-sector reform may be postponed.
Failing to conduct elections in 2024 poses a significant challenge to South Sudan’s progress towards peace, democracy, and development. This situation can exacerbate a nation’s political, social, and economic crises.
The author, Deng D’Duot Bior-Barr, is a South Sudanese PhD Candidate at the Center for Energy, University of Dundee, Scotland. He can be reached via his email address: John Deng Duot Bior-bar <dduotdit@gmail.com>
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