Strategic Lessons to South Sudan from the Devastating War in Lebanon
Hon. Atem Garang Dekuek
By Atem Garang D. Dekwek, Juba, South Sudan
Tuesday, 10 December 2024 (PW) — The current war in Lebanon between Israeli army and Hezbollah militia has exposed how the Lebanese state seems to be a showcase of a country to have been established on fragile foundations. It has indeed reveald how a country with shaky unity, and inferior military capabilities in a volatile region, could be an easy prey and subject to humiliation by strong neighbours. The ongoing war between Israeli army and Hezbollah militia (Lebanese citizens with religious sectarian allegiance to Iran) clearly uncovers the vulnerability of a fragile state. Hezbollah was founded by volunteers as a national resistance armed group, on behave of the weak Lebanese state; to liberate villages, south of the country, under Israel occupation and to support the Palestinians case; however, several Lebanese perceive Hezbollah as a religious sectarian militia that does not represent the interest of the country.
The stability of the Lebanese state and the unity of the people have been seriously weakened by the contradictions and antagonized diversities. The religious and sectarian differences are too divergent, extremely hampering social cohesion, and jeopardizing political stability of the country. Geopolitics of the Middle East has displayed the Lebanese state as the most vulnerable country in the region in many aspects. When compared with Israel, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus, Lebanon is the weakest country in this volatile region.
The Lebanese people, based their state power sharing, on ethno-religious groups representation – the Christian groups led by Maronites, on one hand, and the Muslims dominated by Shias, Sunnis, and Druze denominations, on the other. These ethno-religious groups are heterogenous in their religious belief, political alliances, social allegiances, and external affiliations; thus, rendering the country to be one of the most disunified in the region. Not so surprisingly, both the Israeli and the Syrian governments, are exerting efforts to keep Lebanon weak, demilitarized and politically fragile. Syria is however digressing and turning into a weak and fragile state. Iran, by proxy, would like Lebanon to remain as its satellite, through Hezbollah militia, a loyal sectarian ally. France looks at Lebanon from patronage prospective, and should remain as such, militarily weak, politically in crippledom always seeking French mercies.
Hezbollah militias, are portrayed by the Western media as non-Lebanese citizens; therefore, destroying them is considered not to be directed against Lebanese state sovereignty, and some Lebanese entertain such a notion. The Hezbollah fighters are further projected to be fighting Israel for a case which is not in the Lebanese interest, hence justification of assassination of Hezbollah leaders, without any complaint raised by Lebanese citizens or protest from the government. This in my view, is a characteristic of a heterogeneous ethno-groups that do not ascribe to agreed unifying objectives and allegiances.
With that, in comparing the situation of South Sudan, it seems to be the Lebanese setting. South Sudan is a country with diverse ethnic groups that have not figured out the basis of the state power sharing. South Sudan is situated within unstable regions, Horn of Africa, East Africa, and Great Lakes and Central Africa Region, all of which are analogous to that of the volatile Middle East. Some of the neighbouring countries retain ambitions that motivate them to tirelessly exert all efforts to weaken South Sudan and keep it a fragile state. These countries are playing patronage role upon us; while others within the region are semi-failed states of which their instability influences our situation.
However, we are unique and resilient people in the region: most of the countries of the region got their independence without waging a deadly atrocious war of national liberation. The people of South Sudan, persistently resisted well-armed slave hunter-traders and the Mahdist state (1821-1898); courageously resisted the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium Rule (1898-1955); and sacrificially fought the brutal domination of the Sudanese regimes (1956-2011). This feature of bloody long national struggle, has positively been imprinted in the collective memories of the people, recognizing how expensive and costly was the price of the independence; though that bond and cohesion is presently being challenged by regionalism, tribalism, and lack of good governance.
When national policies, are strategically articulated, they enable the country to play an effective role in the region, either militarily, diplomatically, politically, or financially, regardless of its size and population. In the Middle East, the small Israel is an ideal example of military capability, while the tiny Qatar and UAE are a perfect example of effective financial and diplomatic players in regional and international affairs. Iran, in the Middle East, is tirelessly operating to establish effective presence through regional patronage by seeking alliances in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Qatar to oppose Israel and Saudi Arabia; and it has proved its effectiveness in the region.
In the regions adjacent to South Sudan, Rwanda is militarily an important player in the region, and is internationally respected for its diplomatic abilities, while giant DRC is dwarfed by such a diminutive state. Eritrea is another example of a tiny state, but with correct understanding of the dynamics of the geopolitics of the region, consequently, Eritrea is a formidable military power that cannot be under-rated by the giants of the region, Sudan, and Ethiopia. In our region, Egypt is trying to play a similar role to Iran. In the Horn of Africa, Egypt is offering its patronage to Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, and to some extend South Sudan, to engulf and isolate Ethiopia. Kenya and Uganda have already encroached into territories of weak South Sudan, a typical national case. This encroachment is perceived unpatriotically, as if it is only a concern of the people of the areas under the foreign occupation.
In the light of the foresaid, it is significant to learn a lesson from military vulnerability of Lebanon. The way the Israelis are humiliating the country, the people, and the army is deplorable; and this must be an eyeopener to South Sudanese. South Sudan, should not join the club of states in which the citizens are not enjoying the dividends of their sovereignty and independence i.e. DRC, and CAR in the region and elsewhere!
Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, and Uganda are silently working to retain South Sudan a frail, instable, and fragile state, that would always be asking for their support and assistance, militarily, financially, diplomatically and remains a consuming market of their products. Ethiopia, seems to be looking for genuine partnership with South Sudan, which is met with a shyly enthusiasm by the government. Our natural resources have been among the reasons that motivated foreign occupiers to dominate us for nearly two centuries 1821-2011. Neo-colonialism comes in many forms and colours; we should be aware of that fact.
South Sudan should take strategic lesson from Lebanon war and professionally analyze and correctly comprehend the dynamics of the geopolitics of our region. The following steps could be considered as strategic steps for existential goals in this unstable region: The leaders of South Sudan, must aspire to realize sustainable peace in the country, and speed-up the making of a permanent constitution which is on the process of being drafted. The constitution must adopt federal system, that has been a consistent demand of South Sudanese since 1940s; it will strengthen the unity of the people, eliminate regionalism, reduce tribalism, and usher in good governance.
It is important to operationalize slogans and objectives of the war of the national liberation: unity in diversity, progress, equality, justice, good governance, democracy etc.; to achieve these objectives, the government must encourage formation and establishment of detribalized organizations and associations, which are essential blocks in the nation building. Such organizations will contribute in cementing the foundations of the unity of the people of South Sudan. Among such organizations and associations are: political parties, trade unions, civil society organizations, professional associations, war veterans’ associations, syndicated organizations etc.;
As our region is marred by political instability, it is imperative therefore, to build a national army that is contemporary, strong, capable, and inclusive. To ascertain holistic national army and other security organs, it is then essential, to demobilize from the SSPDF and other organized forces, all the ageing veterans of the war of the national liberation, former tribal militias, and the former NCP supported militias. This demobilization should be done gradually and in phases with rewards and financial packages for dignified and honorable living for the demobilized and their families.
Our economy has never been managed with professionalism. The economic policies should have been based on agriculture to guarantee food security and poverty alleviation, while exploiting minerals for exports. All foreign cartels running retail-trade that drains hard currency into the hands of the foreigners through illegal methods, should be scrutinized and impede the activities of money launderers. We should only focus and encourage genuine investors.
Our survival in this volatile region demands strategic planning, profound understanding of the geopolitics, paying special consideration on climate change and its impacts on our environment, and formulate unambiguous policies on our rights in the Nile waters. The fragility of South Sudan state should not be passed to the next generations. What is happening in Lebanon is a good lesson that urges us to establish and build a strong, united, progressive, and democratic country, that is weighty and formidable regionally, continently, and internationally.
Atem Garang Deng Dekuek is currently an MP at the National Legislative Assembly of South Sudan, formerly Deputy speaker in Khartoum on SPLM ticket after the CPA era, and later clerk of the national assembly in Juba, South Sudan before his resignation.
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