Echoes of 2013: Political Collusion and Instability in South Sudan
By Morris Yoll, Canada
Wednesday, 12 February 2025 (PW) – The politics of collusion in South Sudan remind us of the civil strife experienced in 2013. The recent Governors’ Forum has sown seeds of discontent. These seeds are similar to those seen during the December 2013 coup. This historical incident involved influential politicians and led to a devastating civil war. It now seems to be resurfacing.
The 8th Governors’ Forum, chaired by Dr. Riek Machar, has stirred significant tensions. It echoes the events of 2013 when “so-called historical leaders” of the liberation struggle colluded. This collusion resulted in the infamous clash in Juba.
In the aftermath of 2013, Dr. Riek Machar emerged as the leader of the SPLM-IO. Figures like Deng Alor, Pagan Amum, and others became known as G-10 leaders. General Salva Kiir, on the other hand, maintained his position as leader of the SPLM-IG
The recent forum has raised similar concerns. Vice President Taban Deng Gai and Honorable Angelina Teny’s political campaign for Abyei’s cause, particularly the proposed construction of an international airport in Athoony (Khadhien), seems to be a politically calculated attempt. They aim to gather support for Abyei and potentially turn the Twic community against the government.
Their proposal was met with resistance from the Twiccommunity. This raises the risk of renewed conflict between the Twic and the Ngok of Abyei, which appears to be an intended outcome.
Moreover, Vice President Taban’s assertion that there is no government in Sudan, combined with efforts to secure recognition of Abyei’s referendum results, has drawn condemnation from both the Messiria and the Sudanese government.
This strategy seems aimed at creating tensions between Sudan and South Sudan. It portrays Salva Kiir’s government as weak.
Immediately following Vice President Taban’s speech, the Sudanese Army committed atrocities against South Sudanese citizens in Wad Madani. This escalated the blame against Salva Kiir’s government in the eyes of the South Sudanese public.
Another notable development was Governor Lewis Obang’s call to free Equatoria from Dinka Bor cattle herding. This incited tensions and led to attacks on cattle herders by armed Equatorians. And the other hand, Bor Cattle herders retaliated by attacking villages in Equatoria.
These inflammatory speeches and recommendations from the 8th Governors’ Forum have laid the groundwork for communal conflict. They have furthered instability in the region.
Many Equatorians and opposition figures have seized this moment to promote regionalism and tribal divisiveness in social media.
Politically, the situation in South Sudan is precarious. It is ripe for violence driven by calculated political collusion aimed at creating a crisis to undermine the government.
In response, General Salva Kiir has adopted a more subtle political approach. Recently, he signed a peace agreement with General Gatwich Dual. This signals a strategic alliance to counter political threats.
This maneuver, along with other political shifts, seems aimed at addressing the growing discontent within the government. These shifts include appointing his longtime ally, Second Vice President Dr. Wani Igga as Secretary General of the SPLM, and Dr. Bol Mel as the Second Vice President in place of Dr. Wani.
Some interpret the recent decision as a downgrade for Dr. Wani, while others perceive it as a calculated move.
Dr. Wani is anticipated to head the SPLM in the forthcoming elections. Should President Salva emerge victorious, Wani and Salva would likely collaborate to establish a government, with Wani potentially being reinstated as Vice President and subsequently taking over leadership of the party when Salva steps away from politics.
Furthermore, the removal of Chief Security General Akech Tong Aleu and the SPLM-IO ministers is seen as a tactic to install loyal figures within the government, with General Akech expected to be assigned to another significant role.
These changes bear similarities to the events leading to the 2013 civil strife. During that time, the President dismissed all Ministers to eliminate dissenting voices.
There are clear similarities between the political crisis of 2013 and the current situation. The current situation has triggered atrocities committed by the Sudan Army against South Sudanese in Wad Madani, the killings of cattle herders in Equatoria, and rising tensions between Twic County and the people of Abyei.
The leaders behind these developments—Dr. Riek, Deng Alor Kuol, Taban Deng, and Angelina Teny—are veterans of the 2013 crisis. Dr. Chol Deng Alaak, a special administrator of the Abyei Administration, seems intent on exploiting the political divide to justify the appropriation of Twic County land.
Honorable Lewis Obang appears to seek the backing of Dr. Riek and H.E. Taban to bolster his agenda of pushing Bor cattle herders out of Equatoria. Meanwhile, Dr. Riek and Taban are looking to align with opposition forces to gain political support.
This entire saga appears to be a deliberate political collusion aimed at power consolidation in the country.
As we witness these developments, it is essential to address the political instability to prevent another outbreak of civil conflict.The lessons learned from 2013 should guide us in unity and ensuring peace in South Sudan.
In conclusion, this article highlights the troubling resurgence of political instability in South Sudan. It draws parallels to the events of 2013. It emphasizes the urgent need to address this instability and to take proactive steps to prevent further civil conflict. The experiences of 2013 should inform our efforts to promote unity and maintain peace in South Sudan.
Morris Yoll is a South Sudanese Canadian. He could be reached via myoll2002@yahoo.com
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