Commentary on VP Rebecca Nyandeng’s speech at the inaugural reception of VP Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel in Juba, South Sudan
By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan
Saturday, 15 February 2025 (PW) I am hereby making some observations on the speech by Vice President Mama Rebecca Nyandeng De Mabior during the inaugural reception of VP Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel Akol in Juba, South Sudan:
1. It is abundantly clear to all and sunder that President Salva Kiir Mayardit has anointed Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel Akol as his successor, bypassing the SPLM party’s traditional leadership hierarchy and succession protocols that ushered President Kiir into power in 2005. By her speech today, as documented by Comrade Ajak Deng Chiengkou, Mama Rebecca Nyandeng appears to have emphatically endorsed President Kiir’s succession plan.
2. The historical precedent for such political succession dates back to the Underground Movement when Col. Dr. John Garang and Maj. Gen. Albino Akol Akol were vying for leadership of the clandestine organization. During the pre-May 16th Bor Uprising period, Major Arok Thon Arok played an instrumental role in convincing his comrades that Dr. John Garang was the right person to lead the impending revolution following the killing of Maj. Gen. Emmanuel Abuur-Matuong Nhial, who had naturally assumed leadership after the 1972 Addis Ababa Accord. At the inception of the SPLM/SPLA in Ethiopia, Major Kerubino Kwanyin Bol Deng, Major William Nyuon Bany Machar, and Major Salva Kiir Mayardit Thiik Atem militarily secured Dr. John Garang’s position as revolutionary leader of the SPLM/SPLA against a formidable challenge from Maj. Gen. Akuot Atem Mayen. Thus, Dr John Garang was nominated by Arok Thon Arok, and installed by Kerubino Kwanyin, William Nyuon, and Salva Kiir.
3. In 2005, Dr. John Garang publicly anointed CDR Salva Kiir Mayardit as his successor at Rumbek Freedom Square, shortly before the fatal helicopter crash. In 1983, at the inception of the Movement, Dr. John Garang catapulted Major Salva Kiir Mayardit to the fourth position in the SPLM/SPLA Military High Command over more senior officers such as Lt. Col. Francis Ngor-Makiech Ngor, Lt. Col. Bona Bang Dhel, Lt. Col. Kawach Makwei Mayar, and Major Arok Thon Arok, all of whom were senior officers not just to Major Salva Kiir but also to Major Kerubino Kwanyin and Major William Nyuon. Throughout the liberation struggle, CDR Salva Kiir Mayardit headed SPLM/SPLA military security and intelligence under Dr. John Garang. As head of military security and intelligence, CDR Salva Kiir Mayardit was naturally positioned to succeed Dr John Garang.
4. In 2005, CDR Kuol Manyang Juuk and Mama Rebecca Nyandeng were instrumental in installing CDR Salva Kiir as Dr. John Garang’s successor. Following Dr. John Garang’s death, the SPLM/SPLA leadership convention in New Site, Eastern Equatoria, saw CDR Kuol Manyang Juuk nominating Salva Kiir Mayardit, with Mama Rebecca Nyandeng’s seconding the nomination. None objected, and CDR Kuol Manyang commanded CDR Salva Kiir to “get up and sit in that seat” to resounding applause from the room. Accordingly, the SPLM/SPLA leadership transition was unanimous and decisive, forestalling a civil war within the Movement.
5. With Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s recent appointment as Vice President, long-standing Juba rumors of his anointment as President Kiir’s successor are gaining traction and taking familiar shape. Judging by the passion of her speech, Mama Rebecca Nyandeng, who previously seconded CDR Salva Kiir’s nomination, has now officially seconded Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s anointment. Hence, Mama Rebecca Nyandeng’s inaugural ceremony speech notably echoes her historical role in succession planning in South Sudan in general and the SPLM party in particular.
6. I have previously congratulated Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel on his appointment as 2nd Vice President of South Sudan in the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGONU), viewing the appointment as representing a generational transition within SPLM/SPLA leadership from the KWAK old guards under President Kiir to the Terab Generation (Jesh-Amer) under Comrade Deng Bol Aruai’s nominal leadership. It is my conviction that while corruption allegations abound against Dr Benjamin Bol Mel (‘Only one Rat misappropriating public funds in South Sudan,’ proclaims Hon Joseph Lual Achuil), it is likely the case that any misappropriation was at the behest of his boss, President Salva Kiir. It is likely the case that Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel holds only a small ownership stake in the rebranded ABMC company, while the real beneficiaries are his superiors. Dr Benjamin Bol Mel should not be solely blamed for President Kiir’s actions. Therefore, I detest nailing Dr Benjamin Bol Mel on President Kiir’s cross.
7. Success in political succession is not guaranteed. Despite his astonishing appointment, there is no guarantee that Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel will ultimately succeed President Kiir unless he plays his political cards wisely as advised by Mama Rebecca Nyandeng. President Kiir is a shrewd political operator who has outmaneuvered and discarded many potential heirs, including KWAK elders, King Paul Malong, Akol Khor, and Tutkew Gatluak. Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel would be naive to trust President Kiir’s outward demeanor and should therefore proceed with extreme caution as he risks being discarded like others before him if he misjudges President Kiir’s intentions. Indeed, if Salva Kiir’s South Sudan history is any guide, Dr Benjamin Bol Mel’s chances of ending up in the Blue House are higher than making it to J-1.
8. Several factors could complicate Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s path to the presidency and SPLM chairmanship. Firstly, Juba’s political circles suggest Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s path to the presidency runs directly through First Daughter Adut Salva Kiir Mayardit. Juba’s political circles have it that Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel (like Salva Kiir, Arok Thon, Kerubino Kwanyin, and William Nyuon before him) has a known affinity for women and multiple wives. While I prefer not to delve into personal matters, how Dr Benjamin Bol Mel manages his personal relationship with the First Daughter will be crucial to his chances of succeeding President Kiir. Furthermore, the stance of extended Mayardit family members, such as Thiik Thiik Mayardit, Gen. Gregory Deng Kwach, Akot Lual Areech, and Bona Bol Bol Areech, have remained conspicuously silent on Dr Benjamin Bol Mel’s anointment, with previously vocal Akot Lual Areech maintaining uncharacteristic silence.
9. The relationship between President Kiir and Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel has been rooted in their shared business interests, primarily through ABMC Corporation (rebranded as ARC after American sanctions). The success of the succession plan will largely depend on Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s ability and willingness to protect and preserve both President Kiir’s legacy and his family’s interests, particularly given the president’s advancing age and health considerations. Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel is positioned as a trusted custodian of both. However, his success will depend on whether President Kiir truly believes Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel can protect his legacy and wealth. Apparent failure in this regard could lead Dr Benjamin Bol Mel to the Blue House rather than the presidency.
10. Finally, Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel’s appointment was neither predetermined nor endorsed by either his immediate Aweil Dinka community or the extended Rek Dinka community, just as past leadership appointments of political figures like Joseph Garang Ukel, Abel Alier Kwai Kut, Joseph Lagu Yang’a, Dr. John Garang, and Salva Kiir Mayardit were not predetermined by their respective community endorsements. Tribocratically speaking, the Rek Dinka community encompasses the Gogrial Dinka community, Tonj Dinka community, and Aweil Dinka community, while the broader Dinka community includes Lakes Dinka community, Jonglei Dinka community, and Padang Dinka community. The historical pattern of leadership is noteworthy: while Abel Alier Kwai and Dr. John Garang hailed from the Jonglei Dinka community, and President Kiir hails from the Gogrial Dinka community, Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel hails from the Aweil Dinka community. Should the apparent succession plan materialize, it would mark the Aweil Dinka community’s turn at the nation’s helm—assuming, of course, that South Sudan’s leadership has indeed become an internal matter of Jieng politics.
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