President Salva Kiir’s Grand Strategy: Mobilize the Dinka by Inciting the Nuer
KiiRiek 2024
By Bor Gatwech Kwany, Maiwut, South Sudan
Saturday, 26 April 2025 (PW) – President Salva Kiir is a weak leader who clings desperately to power. You can see it in the way he speaks and carries himself. He lacks the vision to govern a modern state; his rise to the top was accidental, but he has no intention of stepping down, not even for his own daughter, let alone a trusted ally. Everything we see is a calculated strategy of manipulation: to stay in power at all costs by mobilizing the Dinka through the incitement of the Nuer.
Riek Machar, despite his ambition to lead, cannot remove Salva Kiir because he lacks the strategic foresight and political discipline required for such a feat. He relies solely on the outdated legacy of 19th-century Nuer resistance, an era long gone. He has no international allies to back him when cornered, and his obsession with the presidency has left the Nuer exposed, confused, and vulnerable.
Salva Kiir understands that he lacks the competence to run a functioning state. To maintain Dinka support without delivering development or security, he must constantly manufacture conflict. His most effective tactic: provoke the Nuer, as he did in 2013. He knows they will retaliate. This animosity ensures that the two dominant tribes, Dinka and Nuer, remain divided and unable to unite against his rule. The rest of South Sudan’s ethnic groups can be easily overshadowed amidst this orchestrated chaos.
Ironically, the White Army, once a symbol of Nuer resistance, is now a tool in Kiir’s long game. He celebrates when they chant “Kamda ke jaang thile malec wa,” unaware that they’re playing into his hands.
Salva Kiir has survived in power not through strength or popularity, but by achieving one core objective: Dinka mobilization through Nuer provocation.
How Do We Reverse This? First, we must help the Nuer people realize that they have no inherent conflict with the Dinka as a tribe. Their enemy is not the Dinka, but Salva Kiir and the machinery he uses to divide and rule. If this truth sinks in, Kiir’s only card collapses, and so does his grip on power.
Second, someone needs to find a “juju” to convince Riek Machar that if he truly wants to succeed Kiir, he must find new strategies beyond using the Nuer in armed resistance. His current approach, without the means to arm or support his forces, is not leadership, it is sabotage. It amounts to orchestrating the collective suicide of the Nuer nation.
Moreover, the Nuer must understand that their destiny is not tied to Riek’s presidential aspirations. Their identity and dignity exist with or without him. He must stop deploying the Nuer to fight battles he cannot win. This is not leadership, it is betrayal.
Third, the Dinka themselves are trapped in Kiir’s strategy. Many among them oppose his regime, but their dissent rises in peacetime and vanishes when war returns. Why? Because the incited fury of the Nuer makes Dinka opposition feel unsafe or unwelcome. Thus, for any serious anti-Kiir alliance to form, the Nuer must overcome the incitement and separate the regime from the Dinka community at large.
Let’s be clear: the Nuer are not fighting the Dinka. They are fighting a regime. Just look at General Koang Chuol Ranley, he is Nuer, yet he fights for the regime. So, how can anyone still chant that this is a war against the Dinka? To the Nuer at home and in the diaspora: are you really okay with this confusion? Because, right now, you’re fighting the wrong war, and that’s exactly what Kiir wants.
Yes, a tribe can liberate a nation. Some regime loyalists mock the Nuer struggle as tribal, but our own liberation history started with tribal seeds, be it Anyuak, Moro, or Nuer units at the borders of Ethiopia, Congo, or Uganda. What matters is not the tribe, but the objective. If the rebellion fights for South Sudan and not against a tribe, others will join.
Take the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia. It began as a tribal movement but fought for national liberation. They didn’t attack other tribes; they targeted a regime. That focus is what brought victory.
The newly formed Nuer Defence Forces (NDF) can do the same in South Sudan, but only if they adopt a clear national vision. If their struggle is only about revenge against the Dinka, they won’t liberate even their own counties. They’ll just be another pawn in Kiir’s game of tribal war.
The Dinka and Nuer must unite to end Salva Kiir’s rule. He is killing both: mobilizing the Dinka with lies and inciting the Nuer with violence. Both groups are suffering. The Dinka must refuse to be mobilized. The Nuer must refuse to be provoked. The real enemy is the regime, not the tribe. Only then can South Sudan reclaim its dignity, unity, and future.
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