The betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar by his native foes and South Sudan peace guarantors

By Lul Gatkuoth Gatluak, Juba, South Sudan

Monday, 26 May 2025 (PW) — The betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar by his native foes and South Sudan peace guarantors had reached its maximum peak as President Salva Kiir had destroyed 2015 {ARCSS) and 2018 (R-ARCSS and Peace guarantors are nutted. On Tuesday May 20,’ president Salval Kiir appointed his son in law a U.S.-sanctioned Benjamin Bol Mel as the First Vice Chairperson of the SPLM-IG party, a move that appears to be the preparation for a potential successor. Bol’s appointment brought him one step closer to be declared the next President of the Republic of South Sudan. Sincerely speaking, the current South Sudan political atmosphere has entailed the betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar by his native foes and South Sudan’s peace guarantors IGAD, African Union, the United Nations; the Troika nations, which are composed of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Norway; the so-called South Sudan’s 2015 Peace Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) and 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) guarantors that actively involved in South Sudan’s peace negotiations had reached its maximum final peak as Salva Kiir had destroyed both peace agreements.

 During 2015 {ARCSS) and 2018 (R-ARCSS) negotiations, the above-mentioned entities played key important roles in facilitating the peace process and designated themselves to ensure the agreement’s implementation once the party to the {ARCSS and R-ARCSS were convinced to reach an agreement. However, the guarantors had eventually failed miserably to safeguard both 2015 and 2018 Peace agreements from being violated after they were signed.  Throughout {ARCSS and R-ARCSS implementations, the guarantors have done very little to correct Peace violations which have consistently been committed by the government. At this juncture, , , the focus of this article is to address how 2015 {ARCSS) and 2018 (R-ARCSS) were used as a plot to betray Dr. Riek Machar by his native foes and South Sudan peace guarantors.

Without remorse, Salval is aiming to repeat the massacre of the Nuer people. The Nuer massacre of December 15, 2013, which was a well-organized, intentional mass killing perpetrated against thousands of Nuer civilians by Dinka SPLA soldiers, the Presidential Guard – Tiger Division, Mathiang Anyoor (Dut Ku Beny), supported by Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), orchestrated by the President of the Republic of South Sudan Salva Kiir Mayardit, Jieng Council of Elders (JCE), and Dinka high-ranking military generals within the SPLA army in Juba is repeating itself given the fact that  a brutal military campaign led by President Salva Kiir’s government is escalating, with airstrikes targeting the Nuer ethnic group in the entire Nuer land. . The aerial attacks, which began on March 16, 2025 following violent clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and the White Army in Nasir Town. This discriminate bombardment had not been condemned by the so-called international community which one began to view as a toothless entity for the reason that it fails to act to prevent further atrocities and hold both Salva Kiir and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni accountable for their roles in this escalating crisis.

 Momentary, the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) is not alive any longer. South Sudan’s 2018 R-ARCSS was resuscitated from the original 2015 ARCSS, which was signed on August 17 and 26 in Addis Ababa and Juba respectively. Although the agreement was a significant step towards ending the civil war in South Sudan, President Salva Kiir reluctantly signed 2015 ARCSS with 16 reservations. Among other issues, Kiir’s reservations related to the scope of the permanent ceasefire and transitional security arrangements; functions of the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation commission(JMEC); amendment procedures for the ARCSS; transitional justice, accountability, reconciliation and healing mechanism; powers and status of the vice presidents in the TGONU; the structure and composition of state governorship; power-sharing in the executive; control of the humanitarian and reconstruction initiatives; resource, economic, and financial management; and timelines for the reconstitution of the constituent assembly within the parameters of drafting the permanent constitution.

Kir also had reservations on the roles and functions of the JMEC, which, according to Chapter VII (3) of the ARCSS, is responsible for monitoring and overseeing the implementation of the agreement and the mandate and the tasks of the TGoNU, including the adherence of the parties to the agreed timelines and implementation schedule. He objected to the notion that JMEC will function to oversee the implementation. According to him, this would make JMEC “the governing authority of the Republic of South Sudan,” leaving the government and national legislature uninvolved. Moreover, Kiir stated that the provisions under chapter VII (5) of the ARCSS, which mandates the JMEC to report regularly in writing to the TGoNu Council of Ministers and the Transitional National Assembly as well as IGAD and AU Commission, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the UN Security Council (UNSC) on the status of the implementation of the agreement makes the JMEC the actual ruling body in south. It also was agreed that all political parties in South Sudan will be represented in the JMEC and will be part of the deliberations. Chapter VII (9) clearly provides that the JMEC quorum be eighteen (18) —ten must be South Sudanese, and eight members shall come from regional and international communities. This makes the JMEC presence in South Sudan a threat and fearsome to Mr. Kiir. What made Kiir agree to sign the agreement he refused to sign in 2015? Many factors contributed to forcing Kiir to sign. First, following his refusal to sign on Mon-day, August 17, many important world leaders persuaded him to reverse his decision. Second, his godfather—Yoweri Museveni’s influence in the region had faded away. Regional leaders had backed down and started to oppose his rigid stand on South Sudan. He decided to urge Kiir on August 18, 2015 to sign peace, saying he would not be able to reverse the worldwide popular call of peace. At that juncture, Salva Kiir who was in limbo and set himself on the boiling pot by refusing to sign was left with no choice other than agreeing to sign the peace with all provisions he refused to sign on Monday, August 17.                                          

The first betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar.

The first betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar came after the conclusion of 2015 ARCSS given the fact that, during security arrangement negotiation, it was first agreed that SPLM/A-IO will go to Juba with3,000-strong force, but that decision had later been changed, and the new proposal was that IO will go to Juba with only 1,370 force. Their arsenal weapons were rejected and bullets were counted. The reason behind the alteration was that Taban, who was Riek Machar movement Peace negotiator, had colluded with the government to take Riek Machar’s position once Riek had gone to Juba. Immediately after the SPLM-IO guards had returned to Juba, tension began to develop day after day. Before all SPLM-IO guards could finish arriving to Juba, Paul Malong Awan, the chief of general staffs of the government forces, shuttled to Bhar El Ghazal to bring 7,000 additional forces to the already militarized Juba as a signal of preparing for an anticipated war. As both SPLM/A-IG and SPLM/A-IO forces congregated in Juba suburbs, mistrust between the government and opposition were high, and the unity government

 Following many incidents, the iceberg exploded on July8, 2016 in the early evening hours before sunset on Friday. Heavy gunfire that involved artillery broke out, outside of the presidential palace in Juba whiles Alva Kiir, Riek Machar, Wani Igga, and some of their bodyguards and those who attended the function were in the room. The shooting started suddenly outsideJ1 and spread around Juba.  Both sides had engaged in using their arsenal power to crush each other.  Their leaders—Kiirs, Machar, and Wani—claimed inside the room that they all had no idea about the cause of the clashes. Wasit true Kiir did not know the causes of the confrontation outside his palace? Not sure about you, but this author is very skeptical, doubting the authenticity and the truthfulness of his claims. If you as a reader and a viewer would go back and read the three leaders’ body languages, some of you may agree with this author that Kiir’s body language shows he was fully informed and had full knowledge of what was taking place outside of his palace; only Wani and Riek seemed to have no clue about the incident. However, a few weeks before the J1 incident, Wani Igga warned government soldiers to sleep with one eye open. That rhetoric was an indication of alerting the soldiers that war was imminent in the shortest time possible. In reality, the J1incident was a well-coordinated conspiracy even though Salva pretended like he didn’t know what was happening. The incident was pre-planned to coincide with the presidency meeting so that Riek’s whereabouts were known and located as the government was wanting to assassinate him.

The government plan was that the gunfire would start and when Dr. Riek tried to find a way to get out of the situation he could be killed during a confrontation and describe his death as just a crossfire incident and later deny knowledge of how he died. However, during the clashes. Riek remained still in the palace. Due to that staying still, the assassination did not go as planned. On the other hand, Dr. Riek’s bodyguards who accompanied him to J1 fought aggressively against hundreds of Residentiary’s troops. That heroic fighting created a condition of stalemate where Kii realized he might also die if the assassination would take place in the room they all were staying in. After many hours sitting in the room hearing the sound of guns nonstop, the leaders made up their mind and decided to not continue waiting in the room any longer. Around 10 p.m., they made some arrangements to go to their respective residents, but dispersing would come after the three men had issued a press conference and addressed the nation. In their joint news conference given after the outbreak of fighting on Friday evening, none of the leaders offered a reason for the conflagration. Kiir stated, “What is happening outside is something that we cannot explain to you. Three of us were sitting inside the meeting, discussing the situation of yesterday, what happened in Gudele, and then talking about what we can do in the implementation of the agreement and to build confidence among the forces and the civil population. “On his part, Dr. Riek stated, “This is a very unfortunate incident and none of us really knows what has happened. All we want to tell our public now is that they should remain calm.” Then Wane Iggy said, “The government will investigate the cause of Friday’s event and take really severe measures against the perpetrators.” 

On Saturday, there was a lull just to honor the fifth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence. Then, fighting flared again on Sunday, July 10, and Riek Machar’s base was bombarded by air and also shelled with artillery, light machine guns, as well as hand-propelled grenades. At night, Dr. Riek and his forces retreated to the bushes of the Equatoria region. They were hunted by a combination of four helicopter gunships, two spy planes, and one drone as they marched for 37 days on foot to DRC. On July 25,2016, President Salval Kiir appointed Taban Deng Gai as First Vice President, replacing Riek Machar, after Dr. Riek was pushed out of the capital Juba on July 10-11, 2016.The worst scenario was that the assassination attempts and the illegal move of Dr. Machar’s replacement was not condemned by the regional and the international community even though the incident in Juba resulted in peace collapse. This show Dr. Riek was betrayed by his native foes and South Sudan peace’s guarantors.                                                     

The second betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar

The second betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar came after he left DRC for Khartoum. On September 21, Dr. Riek met with his supporters in Khartoum some of whom were from other East African and Western countries. The resolution of their discussion was that they have to resist the aggression of Salva Kiir. After the resolution was made available to the public, it was misjudged. Instead of blaming Kiir for violating the peace, world community critics condemned the call for armed resistance. They reasoned Machar’s call for an armed resistance against Kiir’s government, was a move that could mark resurgence of the country’s civil war. They contend that the conflict could worsen the plight of South Sudanese, who have been displaced internally and in neighboring countries. Some went as far as saying, “Machar is not a stateman as he claims; he should be prosecuted at the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crime against humanity if he engages in any military confrontation with the government in Juba.”

After a brief stay in Khartoum, Dr. Riek relocated to South Africa for more medical checkup for his leg as well as his eye which had been infected a few years back.  While in South Africa, he engaged with many wider media houses in which he said he should return once medical checkup is completed. Little did he know he would remain in South Africa for two years as the Juba regime, regional countries and the United States Obama administration wanted him to be confined, thinking his confinement would bring stability to South Sudan. During his confinement, his supporters kept resisting the government and fighting did not stop. Beside army resistance, IO politicians also engaged both the regional and international community to revive the peace, a call IGAD leaders considered. They decided2015 peace must be revived after JMEC reported several violations between the government and opposition.                      

The third betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar.

The third betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar came after the Revitalized Peace Agreement was abruptly negotiated. The Revitalized Peace Agreement came after multiple resistances from Salva Kiir government. At first, the government refused to participate in negotiation with the SPLM/A-IO of Riek Machar for the reason that they were implementing the 2015 peace with the breakaway SPLM/AIO of Tabun Deng Gai following the Dogfight on July 8, 2016 and its aftermath that forced Riek Machar out of Juba. The opposition split with Taban Deng taking over the First Vice President position, while Machar’s faction returned to battle with the government in the bush. Hence, R-ARCSS is an agreement that seeks to revive the ARCSS of August 2015, which had temporarily ended the first civil war of South Sudan that broke out on December15, 2013.

 Since the resurgence of the civil war in South Sudan on July 7-82016, there have been efforts to ensure a return to peace in the country through various initiatives at international and regional levels. Those initiatives did not bear any fruit until when the young, able Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abbey Ahmed decided to reopen South Sudan peace talks. Dr. Abiy started by sending the delegation to both government and rebel leaders, alerting them to reconsider coming back to the negotiating table.  On December 8, 2017, he wrote an invitation letter to Salva and Riek requesting them to meet face to face. The meeting was proposed to be convened on June 21, 2018 in Ethiopia.

After the end of Ethiopia’s first Salva and Recementing following the July 8, 2016 dog fight, the IGAD authority decided to choose Sudan to be the next location for South Sudan peace negotiation. Omar Hassan Ahmed El-Bashir, President of the Republic of Sudan, was entrusted by the 32nd Extra-Ordinary Summit of IGAD on South Sudan, convened in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on June 21, 2018, to facilitate a second round of face-to-face discussions between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar to resolve the outstanding issues on governance and security arrangements.

 Instantly, El-Bashir was further entrusted to discuss measures to be taken to rehabilitate the economy of the Republic of South Sudan through bilateral cooperation with the Republic of Sudan. Without wasting time, President El-Bashir facilitated the direct meeting between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar on June 25 and 26, 2018, the first of which was graciously attended by Yoweri Museveni, the President of the Republic of Uganda. At the same meeting, Bashir had also convened a separate session of talks with other political parties of the Republic of South Sudan, which discussed the same issues Salva and Riek were discussing.

During June 25, the talk was based on a ceasefire to be declared within 72 hours. The parties were told to be called again soon and continue with the peace talks in Khartoum to discuss the arrangements for implementing the ceasefire, the issue of power-sharing, and the framework agreement. They also addressed issues of humanitarian access to refugees, the release of prisoners, and the formation of a transitional government of national unity after everything had been finalized.    

  Then on July 25, 2018, the parties agreed on power-sharing that would reinstate Dr. Riek Machar as the First Vice President during a36-month transitional period before nationwide national elections would be conducted. Three days after signing the latest power-sharing agreement, the president granted a general amnesty to Dr. Riek Machar and other rebel leaders.  As a result, Dr. Riek was convinced to go to Juba to implement the peace with Salva Kiir without an army.  This is the mistake Dr. Riek had made. As a rebel leader, you could not surrender when you still have strong forces fighting on your behalf. In the nature of war, you either possess relative equality in power, or one side is likely to surrender or be defeated. This reflects the idea that successful military strategy requires a strong understanding of both oneself and the enemy. Dr. Riek could have not surrendered himself voluntarily.

The fourth betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar

The fourth betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar emerged when early this year, Salva Kiir had decided to abdicate power to his son in law Benjamin Bol Mel. He began the nullification of the peace on February 10, when he issued a series of decrees unilaterally removing several senior government officials, including Alfred Futuyo, the governor of Western Equatoria State. Futuyo is a member of the opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In-Opposition (SPLM-IO), led by First Vice President Riek Machar. Shortly after his removal, Futuyo fled Yambio, the capital of Western Equatoria State, following an exchange of gunfire near his residence. The incident reportedly involved elements linked to the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF).

A week later, Salva ordered SSPDF soldiers to move to Nasir in order to disarm white army and a fighting occurred. The fighting between SSPDF and the White Army in Nasir is not new.  It started when civil war broke out in South Sudan in 2013 and SSPDF has ever since made it a habit to bomb civilians on and off; even if civilians are fishing in lakes. The recent fighting that happened in Nasir came as the result of the government plan of disarmament. This is similar to the 2006 disarmament plan when the then Southern Sudan government planned to disarm the Nuer White Army. In the current disarmament mission, the government uses Gen. Koang Chuol Ranley and Gen. Johnson Olony who they bribed from SPLM/A-IO after the government decided to refuse to implement the 2018 peace agreement.

When the white army heard the news about the mobilization of the Agwelek forces of Olony and the Dinka Apandang militias, Abuchuk, they warned both commanders to refrain from bringing the government militia to Nasir and advised them to bring the unified forces instead. When government forces were defeated in Nasir on March 4, 2025, the government of Salva Kiir that granted a general amnesty to Dr. Riek Machar and other rebel leaders, decided to detain all SPLM/A-IO leaders including Dr. Riek Machar. All SPLM/A-IO members remained in detention and the so-called South Sudan peace guarantors who forced them to go to Juba without forces are doing nothing to rescue the peace and Salva Kiiris not strongly condemned for abrogating the peace without remorse

Will this fourth betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar be the end of the long time South Sudanese politician who has been in South Sudan’s political arena for a very long time since his early youthful life?

The answer of this question will be determined by how South Sudanese people view the current transition as President Salva Kiir destroyed (R-ARCSS) by handing power over to Bol Mel. The appointment of Bol Mel as a First Vice Chairperson of the SPLM-IG party is a clear indication that widely perceived as the launching pad to the presidency, this role now places a man blacklisted for grand corruption and indirect line to lead the country. Mel’s appointment as 1st Vice Chairperson of the SPLM is more than an internal reshuffle. It marks a tipping point to bring the man who is known for embezzlement of South Sudan money.  Hence, between 2006 and 2009, the South Sudan government gave Benjamin Bol Mel, chairperson of the Chamber of Commerce and owner of the construction company $1.7 billion on road construction, but only 75% kilometers of roads have been built or paved.

Then, on September 5, 2011, President Salva Kiir demanded that 488 million South Sudanese pounds ($244 million) at the time to be awarded to ABMC Thai- South Sudan Construction ltd, a private construction company owned by a close associate of Salva Kiir’s Benjamin Bol Mel, without the Council of Ministers’ approval. The money was supposedly going to be used for road construction, but the company has never constructed any road. Together with money that has not been unveiled, these are the money Bol Mel used right now to bribe Ugandan forces to kill Nuer.  The idea of repairing a fragile, post-conflict state limping toward reform has now crossed a dangerous threshold, given that a man who has been sanctioned by the United States government for looting the country’s resources is at its helm in-waiting to be the president. The appointment had also fulfilled the notion of one ethnic domination; which mean, his elevation to First Vice Chairperson of the ruling SPLM-IG party sets the stage for full-blown state capture that tell us, South Sudan is a Dinkla country This is not just political maneuvering; it is the formalization of a criminal state, with a U.S.-sanctioned ‘businessman’ being groomed for the presidency in open defiance of constitutional order and international.

In summing, the betrayal of Dr. Riek Machar by his native foes and South Sudan peace guarantors had now reached its maximum final peak as South Sudan current political events are unfolding.  Since the outbreak of war in South Sudan in mid-December 2013, Salva Kiir had worked hard to destroy Riek Machar by any means necessary to him He used the country resources and positions to bribe Riek Machar followers in order to abandon Rieka and join him and South Sudan peace guarantors to accept peace and go to Juba even if the peace is poorly negotiated. The fact that Riek Machar was betrayed to go to Juba without forces, Salva had decided to abrogate the peace, arrest Riek Machar and his officials, declare war across Nuer land; and now appoint Bol Mel to be the next president voided a 2018 peace deal that ended a five-year civil war between Kiir’s Dinka forces and Nuer fighters loyal to Dr. Riek Machar. It’s unfortunate we live in a country where criminals detain innocents.  

The author, Lul gatkuoth Gatluak, is a political commentator and the author of South Sudan’s Endless Sorrows who can be reach at lugatluak09@gmail.com. 

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