The Astounding Irony of President Kiir’s Government Determining the “Legitimate” Faction of the SPLM-IO in South Sudan
Hon. Martin Elia Lomuro: Nine of the sixteen Nuer counties in the Upper Nile region are now officially deemed "hostile" to the government
By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan
Saturday, 27 April 2025 (PW) — There’s a certain tragic comedy playing out in Juba: After beheading the SPLM-IO, the government now seeks to dress the corpse in its favorite suit. To put it differently, there is breathtaking irony in President Kiir’s government presuming to arbitrate the legitimacy of SPLM-IO factions in Juba, especially after arresting Dr. Riek Machar which precipitated the splintering of a now-headless SPLM-IO into warring camps.
Everyone inside and outside the beautiful Republic of South Sudan knows that President Kiir’s government rests on nothing more than a brittle veneer of authority derived from the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Thus, the astonishing irony: The government that owes its very existence to the revitalized peace agreement is now enthusiastically dismantling that same agreement, one “urgent meeting” at a time, systematically undermining the very foundation from which it draws its claim to legitimacy.
It all began with the March 2025 house arrest of Dr. Riek Machar, following the Nasir debacle, where White Army militias overran government forces, killing Lt. Gen. David Majur Dak. With Dr Riek Machar sidelined, the SPLM-IO, already a ghost of its former self, disintegrated into a cacophony of warring factions. Since 2013, the once-mighty SPLM-IO has managed to produce more opposition parties than the young Republic of South Sudan itself. And Dr Riek Machar, the man once prophesied by Prophet Ngundeng Bong to lead South Sudan to political salvation, now finds his future hanging by a thread, one that President Kiir’s government seems determined to cut.
In the latest brazen escalation, Cabinet Affairs Minister Martin Elia Lomuro has come out guns blazing, announcing that nine of the sixteen Nuer counties in the Upper Nile region are now officially deemed “hostile” to the government. Speaking at a Juba press briefing, Hon. Martin Elia Lomuro, who also doubles as Secretary of the High-Level Standing Committee (HLSC) on Peace Implementation, declared:
“The Nuer ethnic group, one of the largest in South Sudan, played a significant role in the liberation struggle. The community spans 16 counties … Out of these, nine counties are considered hostile, primarily aligned with SPLM/A-IO. These include Nasir, Ulang, Akobo, Nyirol, Uror, Pangak, Ayod, and Rubkona. Leaders from these areas hold influential political and military positions and maintain deep ties with community leadership, including youth, women, and spiritual leaders. The remaining seven counties are deemed friendly, including Maiwut and Longechuk (Upper Nile), as well as Guit, Leer, Panyijar, Mayendit, Koch, and Mayom (Unity State).”
This latest pronouncement prompted one exasperated SPLM-IO loyalist, Hon. Ghai Mayen Luk, to dryly quip from the political wilderness: Is Martin Elia’s Lainya County – overrun with NAS, NAS-RCC, and SPLM-IO forces – also among the ‘hostile’ counties? “Martin Elia’s County, Lainya, is full of opposition forces like NAS of Thomas Cirillo, NAS-RCC of Mario Laku, militia forces of Kenyi Loburon, and even SPLA-IO. Is it also among the ‘hostile counties’?”
The government’s ethnic profiling of Nuer counties into “friendly” and “hostile” zones lends credence to Comrade Bor Gatwech Kwany’s beguiling theory that the government’s grand strategy for retaining power revolves around mobilizing Dinka support by deliberately provoking Nuer violent reaction, a trap into which Nuer community repeatedly fall, tragically. Is this classification of Nuer territories into “good boys” and “bad boys” simply the latest chapter in that sinister playbook?
The most damning development, however, came when Cabinet Affairs Minister Martin Elia Lomuro boldly stated that President Kiir’s government would itself determine which of the warring SPLM-IO faction is “legitimate” and therefore fit to engage in peace implementation. During the press conference, Hon. Martin Elia Lomuro explained: “The High-Level Standing Committee will urgently convene a meeting of peace partners to resolve the leadership dispute within the SPLM-IO and recognize the legitimate faction that will continue implementing the peace deal. There are 42 political entities in the transitional government; the absence of one SPLM-IO faction does not nullify the agreement. We must be clear about this.”
Hon. Martin Elia Lomuro, who also doubles as Secretary of the High-Level Standing Committee (HLSC) on Peace Implementation, continued: “The High-Level Standing Committee (HLSC) will review factional claims and determine which group remains legitimate: Is it the one that rebelled? The one in hiding or exile? Or the one working with us in government? Every party has a constitution, and we will follow those rules. The Committee will determine the legitimate SPLM-IO faction and submit candidate nominations for key government structures. The country cannot be left in a vacuum.”
In other words, Hon. Martin Elia Lomuro, as Secretary of the High-Level Standing Committee (HLSC) on Peace Implementation, will review and determine which faction of the fragmented SPLM-IO is “legitimate” enough, in the royal gaze of His Majesty the King and the Crown Prince, to be invited back into the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGONU). In a remarkable display of political contradiction, President Kiir’s government, whose authority derives solely from the revitalized peace agreement (R-ARCSS), now presumes to determine the legitimate representatives of the SPLM-IO after arresting its leader and dismantling the party into warring camps. For the record, the present government’s only real legitimacy lies in the extended authority granted by the revitalized peace agreement (R-ARCSS).
The government faces a fundamental choice. If Juba has decided to dismantle the revitalized peace agreement (R-ARCSS), it should do so fully and without pretense, rather than through piecemeal sabotage. As Molana Mading Gum advised following the Nasir incident: “President Kiir had two options going forward. The first option, a cautionary one, was a full return to the R-ARCSS framework, including President Kiir and Riek fronting a revitalized framework for implementing security reforms. The second option, a radical but born out of frustrations with R-ARCSS, is a total abrogation of the R-ARCSS and a return to the 2011 structures for purposes of conducting national elections within nine months.”
What is now crystal clear is that the government’s real goal is to eliminate Dr. Riek Machar from the political landscape, clearing the path for the Crown Prince’s political ascendancy in the forthcoming elections. Government officials maintain that elections will proceed without Dr Riek Machar, even if his removal constitutes a direct violation of the 2018 peace deal, raising the spectre of yet another civil war. The government appears laser-focused on implicating Dr. Riek Machar in the White Army attacks in Nasir, establishing a pretext for his political removal. Shocking allegations of Dr Riek Machar’s involvement in the White Army attacks in Nasir are swirling and a sprawling investigation loom, threatening not just his political career but the very survival of the SPLM-IO itself.
Already, the SPLM-IO is splintering into desperate warring factions clamoring for the Crown Prince’s favor, with a rival faction naming Peace-building Minister Stephen Par Kuol as interim leader, sending Dr Riek Machar’s die-hard loyalists into fits of outrage. It turns out that contrary to Prophet Ngundeng Bong’s celestial prophecy, Dr. Riek Machar’s political future is not divinely assured. In fact, it is hanging by a thread, and the razor-sharp scissors are in President Kiir’s divine hands.
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