Why Bashir wants to meet Salva Kiir
By Monica Lakes
Before stating the reasons about why Bashir wants to meet Salva Kiir, one would first have to outline that Khartoum has never honoured any agreement since creation. It is their sworn position that they (old and new NCPs) have and will never implement any agreement with infidels or even with muslims who are not of the Arab origin. The proof is that the CPA protocols on Abyei for self determination and popular consultation for Southern Kordofan and Southern Blue Nile were never implemented. This is not to mention the old agreements: Addisababa agreement (1972) and the Khartoum/Fashoda agreements of 1997. There were even more other dishonoured agreements dating back to pre 1956. Anyway, that is history and it is necessary to reflect back those lessons.
We are talking about the recent Addisababa agreement that was initialed by Pagan Amum, the Chief negotiator on behalf of Juba. On the part of SPLM, it can be stated with confidence that there was and still, no hidden agenda about signing the agreement. SPLM initialed the agreement in good faith so that the two sister countries of South Sudan and Sudan live as good neighbours and for the people in both countries to enjoy life and rebuild their livelihoods peacefully.
However, when it comes to the NCP with its known records of reneging, stalling and abrogating agreements, many things come into consideration. First, let us examine this story before finding the reasons for the NCP in supporting the agreement and what caution that the SPLM government in Juba may need to take.
The story is about a lion that camouflaged itself as a cow and joined a herd of cattle. When the herdsman settled his cows and was tying down the animals into their respective positions for the night, he saw the cow-lion smiling to itself in anticipation of what will happen in the night. The lion imagined that during the dark night, the first victim would be the herdsman himself in which case, the whole herd of cattle will remain as the lion’s property after the elimination of the owner. The herdsman after discovering the plot pretended that he did not see anything. He then made plans that resulted in successfully slaying the beast before it implemented its treacherous intentions.
The negotiating committees have gone to Ethiopia many times to discuss pending CPA issues and with no breakthrough. Then, in what would have been an NCP success story when the AU was supporting the NCP position on oil, the SPLM foiled up everything and concluded the abortion with closure of the oil pipelines. Khartoum pretended that it would not hurt their economy, but the truth is that it bites large chunks of it daily. Like a tired fish that allows itself on a pulling hook so as to gather strength to let go, the NCP found interest in the logic of the SPLM’s sincere position of the “mutual interest” for the people of both countries to be free and live peacefully – Simple and attractive.
Bashir and his NCP are now sure that they have made adequate plans. First, Bashir has made great homework within the AU. The AU believes in them more than in the SPLM. Whatever their manner of work may be, it is just the same approach as the one with Scott Gration when he (Scott) was the USA representative in Sudan. Scott had always believed in the NCP. In addition, the NCP has rallied Eritrea, the new Islamists in Egypt and Libya, and then Chad and Central Africa, on its side. These countries are all working to see to it that there must be a destablised South Sudan through a regime change that will keep the country ungovernable for as long as it can take to erase traces of SPLM in the entire South Sudan and Sudan. Already, the NCP has trained militias that can be deployed to attack South Sudan from their soils. They will provide logistics and material support to the militias.
The NCP has cowed some other neighbouring countries such as Kenya and putting them to dummy status. Ethiopia and Uganda are the two countries the NCP seems to be getting some difficulties with in implementing their treacherous agenda against South Sudan. In its quest for wider influence internationally, the NCP has secured China and Russia (UN veto holders) for protection against economic sanctions and arms embargo. The Islamic Middle East, especially Iran, is fully behind Khartoum in providing military and economic support.
On the military front, Sudan will not defeat SPLA-N because the closure of oil pipelines has denied it of financial income to pay the mercenaries and purchase of arms. Sudan’s short term plan is therefore to accept the agreement so that the pipelines are opened and for them to make a speedy plunder of oil. Recently, Omer Bashir went to China and was advised to accept the agreement and China will help on rapid stealing of the South Sudan oil and delivery of lethal fighter planes to Khartoum to use in its monger war against Southern Kordofan and Southern Blue Nile, and also as deterrent to South Sudan.
The plan by the NCP for the meeting is to buy time so that the NCP makes its treacherous plans against South Sudan complete. It would be advisable to inspect Omer Bashir when he is coming to meet Salva Kiir. He may be carrying explosives. Moreover, the security in Juba must step up vigilance so that the NCP trained terrorists that have infiltrated the city should never get any chance to implement their dirty and treacherous plans.
Monica Lakes
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