My conversation with The East African weekly before Juba Gun Battles
By Mapuor Malual Manguen
On July 24, 2013, I received an e-mail message from a journalist from The East African asking me to shade more light on the then new political development in Juba following the sacking of Riek Machar, the whole cabinet and, suspension of Pagan Amum as ruling Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) Secretary General by President Salva Kiir Mayardit.
In revisiting my conversation with that gentleman from The East African, I found out that to some extent, I underestimated what later on led to violent eruption of gun battles in Juba on December 15, which subsequently set off civil war in South Sudan.
Below are his e-mail message and my response. Please, read these texts and digest them in relation to situation in South Sudan now.
E-mail from The East African, July 24, 2013
Hi Mr. Manguen,
My name is (name withheld), I write for The East African, a regional weekly published by The Nation Media Group, Nairobi. Following the latest development in Juba, could you please give me some insights which could help me write a story on the way forward
Could you help me with some answers which I could use without mentioning you?
1. What are the main reasons why Kiir dissolved the entire cabinet?
2. Could it be because of corruption or the competition for power?
3. Do you think the announcement by Dr Machar that he will challenge him in the 2015 elections got anything to do with it?
4. Do you think there is likely to be war between the Dinka and the Nuer?
5. By sacking and suspending Pagan Amum, one of the SPLM veterans, do you think the party will split? (b) The previous split led by former foreign minister did not have impact. What could be different this time?
5. What is the mood of the people about the dismissal of the cabinet, do they think there is something seriously wrong with the current leadership?
6. What are some of the serious leadership challenges facing Kiir?
7. Do you think the move had something to do with the problems the economy is having and the issue of oil production?
Thanks and I look forward to hearing from you as soon as possible. Thank you. And my number is ………
My reply to above questions, July 24, 2013
Dear (name withheld),
The Move by President Kiir to sack his entire cabinet could have been driven by a number of factors: from power struggle with his former Deputy, to economic difficulties facing the young nation, and indeed the answers to call for service delivery to citizens. Kiir sacked Riek Machar because he announced to challenge him both in SPLM’s top seat and presidency come 2015.
The loyalty of former cabinet was divided between him (Kiir) and Machar. This angered the President. Now that he sacked the whole cabinet, he is likely to pick all his loyalists so that he strengthens his grip on power ahead of 2015 elections.
Secondly, there has been steady raising public anger against the government over its failure to deliver basic services to people. The country has been attained but what makes life happy in this new found state is what the public want to see in terms of roads, security, food and health services. Many people countrywide have welcomed Kiir’s decision to sack his entire cabinet because they believe the next executive will come with miracles.
I think Nuers and Dinkas will not fight any war. They have seen horrors of war when the two communities fought bitterly between 1991 and 1998. Now they have seen advantages of peace. Also the dynamics has changed; not all Nuers support Riek Machar and not all Dinkas are behind Kiir. However, given the fluidity of situation now and mistrust between the two communities, the war cannot be ruled out in totality. Anything can happen anytime.
In regard to Pagan’s suspension, I think it won’t cause much impact in the SPLM because Pagan’s behavior has annoyed many members of that party. SPLM members have lost confidence in him. If he splits from SPLM, it is likely to pose insignificant impact. The major threats to SPLM now is what Riek Machar might do. If he splits, this will cause huge blow to SPLM as he may attract large following.
When Dr. Lam Akol, the former Sudan Foreign Minister split in 2009, he didn’t posed impact to SPLM because he was viewed by South Sudanese as a traitor sponsored by Khartoum to undermine referendum for self-determination of South Sudan. This cannot be the case now if Riek splits because the issues that are playing out now have nothing to do with Khartoum anymore.
Finally, Kiir leadership is faced by challenge of how to unite polarized South Sudanese along ethnic lines. This is number one challenge for Kiir’s administration. The second problem is the threat from neighboring Sudan which is in nonstop wrangles with South Sudan.
NB: Please don’t mention my name in the story as you promised.
Thanks,
Mapuor Malual Manguen
The author is journalist, blogger and political commentator base in Juba. He can be reached at mapuormalual@yahoo.com or mapuormalual.wordpress.com
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