Will Mabior and Mama Nyandeng Abandon Riek Machar and Return with Garang’s Boys?

If so, then, the Nuer rebel-terrorists in Pagak will be licking their wounds because they were used in December, 2013 as tools of destruction but they are now being discarded like a human waste.

The current political developments between the SPLM Party factions can tell you that the Nuer supporters of Riek Machar suffer from intellectual disabilities because their understanding of politics is based on tribal emotions. But politics, as defined by Prof. Morgenthau, is based on the objective laws of human nature.

When I told the people of South Sudan in January, 2013 that Riek Machar was planning a coup, there were people who called for a psychiatrist to see me. But when in fact the coup took place in December, 2013, the same people who ridiculed me began asking question, “How do you know?”.

I knew it on December, 20, 2012 that something was cooking after talking to Ezekiel Lol. I knew that Lol Gatkuoth and Taban already started mobilizing “Garang boys” on what they termed as “transformation of the SPLM leadership” which, in practical politics, means removal of President Kiir from power.

When I analyzed what Taban and Lol were talking about, I automatically concluded that they would recruit Riek Machar and use him as a tool to effectuate their objective. My conclusion was based on a precedent. In 1991, Riek Machar was recruited to accept the idea of “Why Garang Must Go Now”. It was not his idea to topple Garang in 1991 as Adwok Nyaba said in his book.

When I talked to Ezekiel Lol in December, 2012, I automatically knew that the war was coming because “Garang boys” would recruit Riek Machar to their program without any difficulty because Riek is a power maniac.

I studied Riek Machar very well and came to conclusion that politically he is not creative and he is not a shrewd politician like Lam Akol, who can calculate even the chemicals of the water he wants to drink.

Now that G-10 returned to Juba for the implementation of the Arusha Agreement, Riek Machar is caught between the deep blue sea and the devil. If he accepts the Arusha Agreement, the Nuer rebels will kill him. He will be disowned by the warlords and Taban Deng will side with the warlords to take over the leadership of the SPLM-IO.

If he rejects the Arusha Agreement, the African countries, under the influence of G-10, will brand him as a negative force. Taban Deng Gai and Ezekiel Lol, when realizing that Riek Machar is being isolated regionally, will join G-10 in the name of “SPLM reunification”.

Now that Mabior Garang is praising G-10 for going to Juba, one does not need to be a rocket scientist to reach a conclusion that he and his mother will follow G-10 because G-10 are actually the children of Nyandeng.

For those who are politically conscious, the comment of Mabior Garang on his Facebook page opens a Pandora Box of Arusha Agreement. The Garang’s family and their children (G-10) will return to Juba leaving behind the vicar of Ngundeng in the wilderness.

The Nuer rebels who were fooled by distorted Ngundeng’s prophecies will have to go to Dak Kueth to explain to them the implications of Arusha Agreement. The only problem is whether Dak Kueth will understand international politics properly for him to interpret the political moves of G-10.

One can conclude that what happened to Riek Machar in 1990s is now repeating itself. The return of G-10 to Juba is creating a political storm that will disintegrate the SPLM-IO because Riek Machar and his Nuer warlords will now be isolated regionally if they reject the SPLM Reunification based on Arusha Agreement.

The rebels will breakup into factions as it happened in 1990s and each Nuer clan faction will end up signing a peace deal with the Government in Juba separately. The Equatorian rebels have already started negotiating with the Government secretly as Equatorians. Soon they will breakaway from Riek Machar and return to Juba. After the Equatorians left, the SPLM-IO will be reduced to Nuer rebel Movement because contacts with Dau Aturjuong already started.

After the Nuer are isolated, each Nuer clan will seek to negotiate with the Government separately as it happened in 1990s. In 2001, Taban Deng and the rest abandoned Riek Machar and returned to Dr. John Garang. Riek Machar signed Nairobi Declaration with Dr John Garang alone.

The return of G-10 to Juba is bringing back the scenario of 1990s when Riek Machar’s Movement disintegrated. G-10 who recruited Riek Machar in 2013 abandoned him. Either he will follow them in Juba or he will end up being considered as a terrorist regionally.

–

The opinion expressed here is solely the view of the writer. The veracity of any claim made are the responsibility of the author, not PaanLuel Wël: South Sudanese Bloggers (SSB) website. If you want to submit an opinion article or news analysis, please email it to paanluel2011@gmail.com. SSB does reserve the right to edit the material before publication. Please include your full name, email address and the country you are writing from.