Ripples of a civil war – South Sudan in focus (1)
By Joseph Lino Wuor Abyei, Cairo – Egypt
October 28, 2015 (SSB) — If a mutiny or a rebellion succeeds it is instantly declared a Revolution, and the mutineers and rebels of yesterday become “revolutionaries and heroes.” Thereafter books and poems and songs of praise would immediately be composed and sung in their praise. If the rebellion fails, those rebels are condemned in the strongest statement possible.
However, in the wake of their failure, the “rebels” would be seen and treated as traitors and are cursed for having unnecessarily caused the death of “innocent people,” and for having caused “destruction of property.” This is how history judges and records events for both the victor and the vanquished.
Therefore, a would be “rebel or revolutionary,” is advised to take time and envision the consequences of any move to change the existing order in any society, or stage a sectarian or tribal mutiny in order to achieve a political gain.
Usually, revolutions, successful or not, have far reaching ripples which are dangerous in totality and some other are traumatic. Consider the following:
The Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 caused the death of hundreds of thousands and over two millions died of hunger in Russia, all in the name of creating a democratic, progressive socialist society. Similar bloody revolutions had taken place in many parts of the world. The result was always mass destruction of property, death and human suffering of the largest scale.
But if the revolution is successful, the Revolutionaries are treated as “heroes” and some sectors of the society become happy. In the process the “Revolutionaries” will begin to experience the tantalizing taste of “power.” Then corruption follows.
Then another cycle of a new “revolution” follows. What is the idea?
In some countries people soon become disillusioned and would like to have a change. In some situations, some disadvantaged social segments, whether racial, religious, sectarian or tribal, begin to agitate and begin to prepare for a “revolution.” In view of absence of an agreed upon mechanism of peaceful change of power, the cycle of revolution and counter revolution continues.
Not so long ago, the United States decided to invade Afghanistan and Iraq and it toppled the two “despotic and inhuman” regimes. This writer was a diehard supporter of that change of regime through the American spearheaded “invasion.” Today, both Afghanistan and Iraq have never been stable at all.
This writer is saying that the Americans could have prepared the two countries for peaceful transition that could have ruled those two countries in the desired “democratic” manner.
Recently, many Arab countries were plunged into what is called the “Arab Spring” uprisings. As a result, the affected countries: Libya, Syria, Yemen, Egypt are far from stability.
Coming home. The former American Ambassador made a very strong warning sometime in 2011 in the wake of rumors that a group of “revolutionaries” were preparing to stage a coup in Juba. She said through SSTV that if somebody attempts to change the existing system, “the United States will immediately withdraw its recognition” from South Sudan. She wanted to say that the United States does not support or tolerate rebellion against legitimate governments.
This warning did not stop rebellious tendencies, and rebel activities did not stop. In the process of establishing law and order, Lt. General George Athor staged his rebellion and in the process he lost his life. Then all of a sudden Major General David Yau Yau started his tribal oriented “rebellion.” In the wake of that rebel movement hundreds must have lost their lives.
However today, following the establishment of Pachala State, Major General David Yau Yau is hailed by his people as a “hero.” If things were to go wrong, the same Yau Yau could have been held responsible for the “un-necessary death and destruction” he brought to his local society. Such is the dictum of a revolution.
Then all of a sudden, al diktor Riek de Machar Teny blew it up in the most spectacularly destructive manner. Then hell came down. Then some “former members” of the SPLM Politburo opened their front.
Then the government declared that the UN, US, UK, Norway and IGAD hands are seen to be behind the “rebels.” This prompted President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni to declare that “If you mismanage yours affairs, you invite foreigners.”
The short story is that the ongoing “rebellion” could partly be a result of “mismanagement of affairs” according to president Museveni, but there is the element of deep rooted “inter-tribal sensitivities” which this writer did not use to see well. Because this writer had always believed that South Sudan is fairly homogeneous, and like many black African countries, is made up of tribes which, ipso facto, look alike.
To the extent that no one can tell a Nuer from a Jieeng or from Chollo or from Anywak and so on and so on. You go to former Greater Bahr el Gazal you cannot tell a Ndogo from Golo or from Balanda or from Keriesh and so on and son. The same thing was true in former Greater Equatorial tribal groups like Kuku, Kakwa, Didinka, Tapusa and so on. They all look alike. Then people get intermarry easily. People go to the same churches and share same names. But with the new eyes, this has become not true for this writer.
This condition is all over black Africa by the way especially in neighboring countries like Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Sudan in particular. In those countries tribes raid themselves as a matter of a routine and raiding is part of social life in some parts of Africa.
For example look at Somalia which is a country that is inhabited by a single tribe divided into two main tribal wings, Affar and Iessa, and yet they have been at each other’s neck for over twenty six years and a solution is not in sight. Tribalism and its problems is not South Sudanese sickness alone or invention. Then South Sudan should not be singled out by the UN, US, UK, Norway and make it a case of endless deliberations and condemnations.
Based on this dubious position, there are people who think that the UN, US, UK, Norway want to destabilize this part of black Africa through South Sudan. Why, and what are they going to gain? But
South Sudan is in full need of UN, US, UK, Norwegian immediate financial and technical support. Leave the issue of “regime change” as feared by some people and come to this country and help solve economic and super structural and infrastructural problems, the rest of the other problems of tribalism, cattle raiding, head braking over marriages and the issue of backwardness will take care of themselves.
You can reach the author via his email: josephabyei@yahoo.com
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