The predicted Risk in post conflict South Sudan
6 min readBy Ajang Atem Joseph – Kampala, Uganda
March 2, 2016 (SSB) — Risk is uncertainty or provability that a condition or action can potentially cause injure, harm and damage. New and terrifying events are happening as we take our first steps into the 21st century. The world’s population has always been faced with “risk” but the difference today is that risks can now reach magnitudes of harm that hadn’t been imagined in modern times. They have the potential for inflicting devastating damage on the vital systems and infrastructures on which our society depends. The menace to all that people value the environment, property, health, life itself has never been greater.
Base on my analysis: there will be no direct violence that would occur in South Sudan since the three-years transition period according to the peace agreement signed in August2015would formally end amicably. However, its implementation process would have the nature of “cohesive diplomacy”. The behaviors of the state and non-state actor shall be shaved once the new constitution comes in to effect and the first multiparty elections will be prepared after the “extreme situation” is brought to an end, thou, the regional context judged out from those preconditions. Thus, the human rights organizations, regional blocks and the international bodies would point out number of human rights abuses and violation, had took place both before and in post conflict South Sudan.
The Nuer and Dinka in the transitional government and in the parliament will compete, paving the way for the new South Sudan identity and foreign policies where cultural identity might exist in parallel dynamic of nationalism of being a strong South Sudanese citizen despite all its flaws, I analyst it “a hopeful point of departure” for the process of reconciliation that will take place in the transitional period, if the new generation is not going to eradicate the tribal division.
A number of institutions might be rehabilitated and/or new might be reformed. And a comparably efficient administration shall be established and it will launch and implement a number of reforms in the country. Security sector reform will create a new National Defence Force which might be name with a different “name” apart from the SPLA and new National Security Strategy. Integer of forces will be demilitarized especially non-professional soldiers in the army and national security. Local government reforms are imminent as well as a reform of the judiciary. A number of innovative institutions for conflict management, reconciliation and post-conflict rehabilitation shall be established according to CPA (2015) but is long lasting peace achievable?
Critical challenges that might be faced by the transitional government
The structural violence that generated what they so-called “attempted coup” in December/15/2013 has gear the differences realization between Dinka and the Nuer and therefore, if the “political goods” (roads and health institutions development) fails to reach the minority in term of equal distribution of resources and power. The frustrated and marginalized population may mobilize again in the need of their interest’s fulfillment and reoccur the violent conflict. Meanwhile, economic opportunities must be developed for elites inside and /or outside the state apparatuses if long lasting peace is to be achieved in South Sudan.
Complications in handling the divert attentions between the diverging interests, not the least over scarce resources. This is always the act as a hatred synergy because issues of land policy and intra-demographic movement of the people will provide a hotbed for frustration, in particular when the refugees who fled the country during the armed conflict and the Ex-combatants are back, in addition, soldiers that would be demilitarized and prisoners of war in the other hand are to be released and this is dangerous to the state since trust will be compromised.
Cognitive reintegration: To handle the unhealed wounds of the 2013 war, i.e. the lack of trust between people and between people and the state (social contract), the need to “mending” society and establish a new social contract between the state and the citizens. The eradication of the ideology and identities underpinning the tribal conflict. The victim’s situation must be improved and the traumas at least somehow healed; otherwise another future source of conflict will be generated.
Democratic deficit: If the transitional government fails to develop inclusive political processes, from local, state and national level, people’s resentment will increase. Of particular importance is to find a way for competing SPLM elites to get access to political space, without resorting to violence. It also means to integrate all political components, including high profile activist in exile that are firmly engaged in political struggle and recognizing current conflict without ambiguity. The high level of illiteracy on the one hand makes people an easy prey for manipulation by the ruling regime. The low level of education creates a dramatic lack of capacity, in a situation with great administrative as well as economic challenges.
Regional challenges of external control of government: South Sudan, as a young nation with weak and almost collapsed economic base, perceives that it security situation is precarious. If the peace implementation process fails or if the militias are not disarmed, demilitarized and/or integrated, the situation will have a dramatic effect on human security and not state security. The situation in Uganda (bad governance) has implications for the development in South Sudan as well. If the Ugandan government continues to be challenged from inside, and still assumed to be close friend in the internal affairs in South Sudan in addition from the Sudan, its politics might avail in South Sudan governance and it’s dangerous since the people in Uganda and South Sudan are different in term of culture and believes.
Currently, governing strategy between the two countries is almost the same; from their ruling party’s structures and military institutions and the peace will have impact on the foreign policy of South Sudan and Uganda because it will divert external influence attention albeit less than a few years back when their relations was less well established.
I hereby recommend the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and international community that all forms of interventions must be made with interest of peace and conflict management as an overarching principle. The development in South Sudan must be seen as a long-term state, nation-building and reconciliation process. One of the most important prerequisites for this to take place is structural violence reduction that is to create an environment for nation building increasing nationalism ideology across the whole population, not the least in the rural areas.
REGIONAL PEACE AND SECURITY ANALYTICAL REVIEW
The predicted Risk in post conflict South Sudan
Vol. 1 (001) Serial No. 26th February 2016
By: Ajang Atem Joseph – Kampala, Uganda E-mail: Josmonajang@gmail.com
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