Extend the life of TGoNU to 5 Years or it will collapse into a political quagmire (part 2)
6 min readBy David Mayen Ayarbior, Juba, South Sudan
May 29, 2016 (SSB) —- In my last article I proposed that let the lifespan of TGoNU be extended to five years instead of two. I based my proposal on at least two grounds. First, the current peace agreement has brought a much needed halt to what was going to be a total state collapse. It would take more than Somali’s over two decades without fixing.
The people who became the primary victims of the brinkmanship of our revolutionaries need this peace for as long as possible. To them, it does not really matter whether the President is a Dinka, Nuer, Bari or Shilluk. What matters to the people is being able to take their children to school safely without getting caught in crossfire or, worse still, gang rapped by manipulated young men who do not fully appreciate what the term nation-state means. Those who care about the Presidency are the ones who want elections in 2018, but not for the people’s sake.
My second ground was that the task ahead cannot be fully accomplished in five years, let alone two. Any reasonable human being who is bent on accomplishing any specific objective will set his or her timeframe according to the magnitude of the task at hand. It is not set arbitrarily. The IGAD timeframe seems to have been just that, set arbitrarily without appreciation of the complexity of “the problem of South Sudan.” To them, South Sudan is SPLM and SPLM is South Sudan. Hence, fixing SPLM would mean fixing South Sudan. Well, that could be half the truth, if SPLM is fixable in the sense that its three factions could unite again, yet that will never happen and maybe for the good of the country.
To sum up the problem of South Sudan that is becoming separate from SPLM unification: It’s a country that has lost a great opportunity to build meaningful social and physical infrastructure when it had a golden opportunity to do so. It is a country awash with small arms. Khartoum is constantly air dropping small arms for fun, probably even where there are no people, Just hoping that someone somewhere will pick them by ‘good luck’. But putting fun aside, we know that they are doing it for a strategic reason related to SPLM-North. Our disunity makes these guns useful to Khartoum’s objectives.
Lakes state is in a quagmire. Non-Dinkas in Bahar Elgazal would want to join SPLM-IO because of the obvious reason of widespread anti-Dinka sentiments. In fact, some of them had militias long before the country was born. Greater Equatoria is no longer that beautiful lush green and peaceful part of our country.
One person ones put our country as number three in the world with the number of Generals, and our active service men are over 250,000 strong, half that of the United States Army. That is simply unsustainable for any developed country in the world, much less for a so called “baby state.” How do we fix that in two years? What is the rush for elections all about? Why don’t they (all Presidency seekers) do it together for a little longer than two years for the sake of peace and posterity? After all, what we now have is virtually a co-Presidency.
One positive step towards fixing the problem is and will always be an intensive DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration) of about sixty per cent of the SPLAs combined forces. That must be the first and most important target which ought to be accomplished honestly without needing external supervision. Let the factions do it for South Sudan’s sake. These young men are not stuck recalcitrantly to their guns. The guns are glued into their hands by ultra-ambitious politicians and warlords who are scared of themselves from what they could do to themselves by themselves.
The over 250,000 armed young men of South Sudan are not guarding the country’s borders but they are virtual innocent unconscious hostages to the politicians and warlords who wouldn’t care a bit for their offspring when they are gone. I am sure the soldiers would prefer more going to school, being carpenters, road and railway worker, or farmers than being fighters in an unwinnable war against their own citizens. The Arabs are no longer our enemies to justify that big force. We are our own worst enemies.
After the Council of Minsters has taken a positive step to approve IO troops’ cantonments in Greater Bahar Al-Ghazal and Greater Equatoria, the factions should expedite rounding up of these innocent young men into those cantonments. The bulk of the work of TGoNU should be on making sure that each word in the acronym DDR is given due attention because they will simply determine whether the country is to be or not to be.
All other things (economic growth, reconciliation, and political stability) shall be added unto our country ones it is honestly and fully demilitarized. None could be done under the barrel of the gun. Without that, we will always celebrate one expensive feasibility plan after another and our TV will continue to be full of Ministers shaking hands with white men and thereafter giving joint statements on what was “discussed.”
Again, we have seen so much destruction of cities and lives reminiscent of stone-age savagery. Outsiders, especially Khartoum had kept telling the world that we would not be able to govern ourselves. It sounded then like an insult. With the benefit of hindsight they might have seen what we did not see, hence let us use the coming few years to structurally fix the country and prove them wrong.
Now that we quickly recollected ourselves and signed a peace agreement before it was too late, it must be irritating our enemies and pleasing our friends to see our resilience. Let TGoNU convince Parliament, the people and and the world that its factions are ready to work together for a longer period in a ‘big tent government’ of national development for the above reasons. Let them put their counter argument across if they can.
Mayen Ayarbior has a Bachelor Degree in Economics and Political Science from Kampala International University (Uganda), Masters in International Security from JKSIS-University of Denver (USA), and Bachelor of Laws (LLB) from the University of London. He is the author of “House of War (Civil War and State Failure in Africa) 2013” and currently the Press Secretary/ Spokesperson in the Office of South Sudan’s Vice President, H.E. James Wani Igga. You can reach him via his email address: mayen.ayarbior@gmail.com.
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