Preface by PaanLuel Wël, Nairobi, Kenya
August 12, 2016 (SSB) — “Judging by the current mood in Juba, It is plausible to speculate that the gov’t of South Sudan will likely reject the resolution passed by the UNSC authorizing the deployment of extra 4000 regional forces in the country, to the total of 17000 UNMISS forces in the country. In that case, the rejection would amount to “obstruction” which would then trigger arm embargo on the gov’t. What then happen next: an armed invasion or just an arm embargo or both? I am yet to digest the resolution to get a better understanding. With an arm embargo on the gov’t, the SPLM-IO would then be invigorated to once more challenge the gov’t on the battlefield. But without direct military intervention by the UNSC Libya-style, the SPLM-IO is too fragmented politically and militarily to mount a military takeover. It would still be a political and military stalemate. Of course, more than the vote from New York City, the underhand actions by Khartoum, Kampala and Addis Ababa will be much more influential in the eventualities that would materialize in South Sudan. What is certain though is that this is a new chapter in the history of our country for the resolution passed today will have reverberation for years and generations to come. Most likely, both Kiir and Riek, and their supporters, will be losers, and whoever the UN hand over power to will be like Ayat Allawi of Iraq: no legitimacy, no power base and no chance of willing a free and fair general election. It will be Dinka, Nuer, Equatorian etc, each for each self, and the UN for them all. And we all know how we arrived here: Made-in-South Sudan.”
Find below the resolution approved by the UNSC on the 12th of August, 2016, in New York City. China, Russia, Egypt and Angola abstained while 11 members voted for it, with none against.