Adwok Nyaba: A Critique of the “New Roadmap” by SPLM Leaders [FPDs]

Posted: December 10, 2016 by PaanLuel Wël Media Ltd. in Commentary, Contributing Writers, Opinion Articles, Opinion Writers

A critique of SPLM Leaders [FPDs]: “A new roadmap to rescue and restore hope in South Sudan

By Dr. Peter Adwok Nyaba, Nairobi, Kenya



December 10, 2016 (SSB) — The SPLM Political Leaders [FPDs] released a 14-page document entitled “A new roadmap to rescue and restore hope in South Sudan.” The document analyses the IGAD brokered peace agreement on the resolution of conflict in South Sudan [ARCISS] to which they are signatory.

The document kicks off with a falsified narrative of the events leading to the eruption of conflict in December 2013. There is no ideological differences whatsoever, hence the struggle, between the different factions at the centre of the conflict. It was sheer power struggle driven by personal ambition. Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Pagan Amum and Rebecca Nyandeng were members of the SPLM leadership [Political Bureau] and all of them belonged to political right. Therefore, power struggle among them was not ideological but personal.

The root causes of the conflict attribute to the SPLM failure to meet the expectation of the people of South Sudan for social and economic development leading to the transformation of centuries old condition of poverty, ignorance, disease, illiteracy and cultural backwardness. This failure now registers as a contradiction between the masses of the people on the one hand and on the other hand the burgeoning parasitic capitalist class comprising the SPLM political military elite and their collaborators in the NCP and other political parties.

The SPLM leaders in the GOSS spent the entire interim period [2005 – 2011] marrying and self-aggrandisement in what some of them called ‘payback time.’ They dolled themselves in corruption, tribalism and economic and political empowerment of kin, while Southern Sudan embroiled in insecurity and ethnic conflicts ubiquitous everywhere but more pronounced in Warrap, Jonglei and parts of Upper Nile..

By the time, South Sudan became independent [July 2011], the SPLM leaders and their collaborators had squandered opportunities for mitigating the impact of the war of national liberation. There was nothing to show for the 20 or so billions dollars GOSS had received during that period. The war with the Sudan and the shutdown of oil production [2012] exacerbated the political and economic crisis.

The SPLM leaders now had to channel their failure into blame game and accusation of failure against President Salva Kiir who instead of depending himself politically opted for military confrontation against his colleagues and hence the civil war.

The fundamental contradiction underpinning the war is actually between the SPLM leaders in their different formations and the masses of the South Sudanese people. The fact that Salva Kiir [SPLM IG], Riek Machar [SPLM IO] and the SPLM Leaders [FPDs] stand apparently on different sides of the conflict is deceptive to say the least. They are the same ideological class – right wing politicians. Under the guise of SPLM reunification, the FPDs joined Salva Kiir in Juba [May 2015] before the signing of the peace agreement. Dr. Riek Machar had no qualms reforming the system to deputize Salva Kiir against the call in the SPLM IO for regime same.

The ARCISS recreates conditions for status quo ante 15 December 2013 i.e. going back in the government and it will business as usual. This explains why some leaders of the SPLM/A (IO) and SPLM Leaders (FPDs) have remained with Salva Kiir pretending to be implementing ARCISS notwithstanding the July events. ARCISS does not address the root causes of the conflict in South Sudan.

The FPDs analysis of ARCISS (page 4 to page 7)

While the analysis is an exposé of violations of ARCISS, it fails to show how power sharing and reforms in governance system particularly in the security sector would reign peace and stability in South Sudan. The ARCISS leaves in place the security sector dominated by Dinka ethnicity explaining the resistance to cantonment in Equatoria and Bahr el Ghazal.

ARCISS is untenable in whatever configuration. Salva Kiir – Taban Deng alliance, what the FPDs call pax Sylvatica, is moribund. The social, economic and political crisis of the regime has deepened; insecurity has heightened especially in Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal with insurgents linked or not to SPLA IO have sprung up everywhere threatening to overwhelm the state with serious humanitarian consequences.

It is a fact that Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar cannot compatibly work together to bring stability and harmony to South Sudan. This obtains consequent to Dr. Riek Machar failing since 2014 to think beyond achieving and wielding power. This prevented the transformation of the civil war into a revolution that would have enlisted a wide coalition including the FPDs and other democratic forces in the country. South Sudan is living a national democratic revolution. The objective reality is ripe for revolution only that the subjective factors are still weak, dispersed and unorganized.

The national democratic revolution and the construction of a national democratic state in South Sudan is the way out. The revolution with the agenda for social, economic and cultural development is the only hope for South Sudan. It addresses the condition of poverty, ignorance, disease, and illiteracy as well as the social contradictions inherent in South Sudan diversities. This then requires the unity of and a commitment by all social and political forces to transform South Sudan into a modern state where politics is organized based on ideas and institutions instead of personality, ethnicity or region.

Accepting the idea of Regional Protection/Intervention Force provided for in the UN Security Council Resolution 2304, the UN trusteeship of South Sudan and the formation of caretaker hybrid administration the FPDs now tout, is tantamount to an admission of political and ideological bankruptcy. It is an attempt to save Salva Kiir and the Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) from imminent defeat because of rising social awareness and political consciousness among South Sudanese people. The notion of existential threat staring the Dinka in the face is alarmist on the false presumption that all Dinka people support and rally behind Salva Kiir and the JCE

The Dinka people are integral part of South Sudan nation. Moreover, they have also suffered immensely especially in Warrap and Awiel under the watchful eyes of Salva Kiir. The targeting of innocent Dinka people on roads in Equatoria, orchestrated by Kiir’s security operatives so-called ‘unknown gunmen’ was intended to drum up hysteria against the Equatorian prompting Salva Kiir to declare taking up the command of the army in Yei. A Dinka backlash to the collapse of Kiir’s kleptocracy is just a pigment of imagination.

Concluding remarks

The FPDs, like the SPLM IG and SPLM IO, are part of the problem afflicting South Sudan and indeed a complicating factor in the power equation due to their vacillating political position. They cannot continue to ensnare themselves to be the regional and international community’s anointed alternative to Salva Kiir or Riek Machar. The only viable alternative to the decaying system is a revolutionary coalition of the social and political forces of South Sudan.

You can reach the author via his email: Peter Adwok Nyaba<>

The opinion expressed here is solely the view of the writer. The veracity of any claim made are the responsibility of the author, not PaanLuel Wël: South Sudanese Bloggers (SSB) website. If you want to submit an opinion article or news analysis, please email it to SSB do reserve the right to edit material before publication. Please include your full name, email address and the country you are writing.

  1. You know DR Nyaba, I wish Riak let you lead the rebellion in 2013 but unfortunately, the guy was still pursuing his self fulfill prophecy. You always pointed out that not every Dinka that supported Salva Kiir. You right on this. I am a Dinka my self and I just don’t like his leadership performance. lets all hope that one day he will be gone and so will this political cloud.

    What I will ask you though is that don’t be drag into a tribal hate speech because Riak and his brother in-law Taban knows what they where doing despite knowing the risk of such act.
    By the way if Riak Machar was a wise man like you he would not associated himself the so called rebellion, because it doesn’t makes any sense that a former country Vice president can take up arms against the very country and the government he was serving under the pretext of reforms that is a very poor political strategy.


  2. You are sensical and at some points very right but well informed people wondered why you always follow Reik yet he has led you down on several occasions! in1991, 2003, 2013 and 2016 respectively. Kiir has failed the nation! well can you do the critics within and win over the majority who have seen that Kiir can not deliver! Reik has spoiled some of you who should have stand as presumptive alternatives to Kiir! Now to hell with all of you in SPLA/M-IO, SPLM-IG and FDs! Shame on you all! now south Sudan is a failed state! You now rule the dollars you have stolen as the children die of severe malnutrition, disease and hungar!


  3. Deng John says:

    Dr. Adwok Nyaba, the only former minister I can still remember because of his performance. I am always impresses by his talent of writing and analysis of critism. Look, “Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Pagan Amum and Rebecca Nyandeng were members of the SPLM leadership [Political Bureau] and all of them belonged to political right. Therefore, power struggle among them was not ideological but personal”. It’s might be true that the elements he mentioned were key players in what I called a day dream convention of 2013. But the question is, where was he?

    secondly, South Sudanese politicians are always the best when coming to move of politic but always engulf by tribal influence. In this article, uncle Dr. Adwak Nyaba is engulfed by tribe, the equatoria in his word. ”The targeting of innocent Dinka people on roads in Equatoria, orchestrated by Kiir’s security operatives so-called ‘unknown gunmen’ was intended to drum up hysteria against the Equatorian”. As you can see, Dr. Adwok has taken side confidently because he is an equatorian. What a backup to enemies of peace?

    In my own analysis, Dr. Adwok Nyaba has stood his ground of crtitism in this case because he think he was neutral during 2013 crisis. It is reflected in his statement,”Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Pagan Amum and Rebecca Nyandeng were members of the SPLM leadership [Political Bureau]”. On the other hand, he stressed this statement strongly, ”A Dinka backlash to the collapse of Kiir’s kleptocracy is just a pigment of imagination”, because he comes from equatoria and Salva Kiir is a Dinka by tribe. What an inflennce?

    In this case, if tribulism engulfs prominent politicians in South Sudan then where are we leading to, a regional governance or un trustee-ship? According to my own inner insight, if Dr. Adwok want to change South Sudan like what he did some years back hence he should refrain from tribal ideologies. Stay bless.


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