Archive for the ‘December 2013 Crisis’ Category


Khartoum Declaration Agreement: The Signed Copy of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCISS), 12 September 2018  (PDF)

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

CEPO Fact Sheet on the Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance


The Riek Machar Factor in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 5)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, September 8, 2018 (PW) — This article will examine the pivotal role of the “Riek Machar Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the prevailing civil war in the Republic of South Sudan. In Kenya, to assert that powerful forces within the political, economic and security establishments of the Kikuyu nation have practically succeeded to frustrate and thwart Raila Odinga from assuming the presidency of Kenya is to state the obvious. Similarly, in South Sudan, to argue that two powerful constituencies, comprising of the historical leadership of the SPLM/SPLA and the Dinka nation, have conspired to oppose and prevent Riek Machar’s presidency in the Republic of South Sudan, would be an understatement.

This is the contextual meaning of the Riek Machar factor in the South Sudanese national conflict. Therefore, the fundamental root cause of the December 2013 Crisis, and the current civil war, is two-fold. First and foremost, the spirited attempt by those powerful constituencies to impede and obstruct Riek Machar from assuming the chairmanship of the SPLM, and thus the presidency of the republic, triggered the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war. Secondly, the strong conviction by Riek Machar to fight and defeat those powerful forces bitterly opposed to his resolve to become the second president of South Sudan, ignited the December 2013 Crisis and the devastating civil war in the country.

Alternatively, the confluence of the two factors – the strong determination by the historical leadership of the SPLM/SPLA and powerful forces within the Dinka nation to oppose and block Riek Machar from assuming the presidency of South Sudan, couple with the firm decision by Riek Machar to fight and defeat those two powerful constituencies – might have hastened and sparked the December 2013 Crisis, which later mutated into the ongoing distressing civil war in the Republic of South Sudan.

Therefore, this article will argue that the strong resistance to, and the fervent support for, Riek Machar’s presidency constitutes and defines the current national conflict, and its appreciation holds the key to a negotiated resolution of the 5-year old civil war in South Sudan. (more…)


The “SPLM/SPLA Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 4)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, August 18, 2018 (PW) — “Politics,” declares Carl von Clausewitz, the former Prussian general and military theorist, “is the continuation of war by other means.” The great Athenian historian and general, Thucydides, the author of The History of the Peloponnesian War, added that, in warfare, as in politics, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” And like any other forms and means of warfare, politics invariably produces both losers who “suffer what they must” and winners who “do what they can”. The acrimonious political fallout within the ruling SPLM party, which preceded and triggered the December 2013 crisis and the present destructive civil war in South Sudan, is a classic case study of Carl von Clausewitz’s aphorism that politics is war by other means, with sullen losers and haughty winners.

Underpinning the power struggle that precipitated the ongoing civil war is the prevailing contention from the opposition groups, as advanced and defended by Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor, that the December 2013 crisis was generated by President Kiir’s fateful decision to eschew democratic institutions and processes by resorting to draconian and undemocratic means to preserve and exercise power in the country. To the government, the seditious machinations by the power hungry Riek Machar to take power by force define and constitute the fundamental root cause of the December 2013 crisis and the raging distractive civil war. In contrast, the veteran South Sudanese journalist, author and politician, Hon. Arop Madut Arop, maintains that the fundamental root cause of the December 2103 crisis was the institutional failure by the SPLM party to attain democratic transformation, as exemplified by the ambiguity of the presidential term limits which triggered political wrangling within the ruling party.

Therefore, this article will constructively respond to, and critically analyze, both Hon. Arop Madut Arop’s article, “How Political Wrangling in the Ruling SPLM Party Wrecked South Sudan Apart in 2013” and Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor’s article, “The Root Cause of the December 2013 Crisis in South Sudan: The SPLM/SPLA Factor.” The evaluation and critiquing will be done on the basis of what is legal and democratic as the opposition leaders are fond of presenting their political actions preceding the December 2013 crisis, and what is a threat to national security as the government often portrays the political maneuvers of the opposition leaders on the eve of December 2013 crisis and the current conflict.

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CEPO Fact Sheet on the Signed Khartoum Peace Agreement on the Revitalization of the 2015 ARCSS

CEPO Fact Sheet on the Signed Khartoum Peace Agreement on the Revitalization of the 2015 ARCSS

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KPA1

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The “Big Tent Policy Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 3)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, August 04, 2018 (PW) — On the 4th of July, 2013, the Vice President of South Sudan, Dr. Riek Machar, few hours after returning from Khartoum, summoned the Guardian newspaper into his office, denounced his boss, President Kiir, as incompetent and corrupt, and then declared his interest in contesting for the office of the president in the 2015 presidential election. While few people had any inkling as to why Dr. Riek Machar would declare a public revolt against his boss of 10 years, what is crystal clear though was that this was at a time when the Nuer was at the peak of their military predominance in the Republic of South Sudan, both at the top echelon, as well as among the rank and file, of the national army.

Gen. James Hoth Mai was the Chief of Staff of the SPLA, while John Koang Nyuon was the Minister for Defense. Of the three (3) sectors of the SPLA, two were headed by the Nuer. Gen. Charles Lam Chuol was the commander of the SPLA Sector Three in Torit, while Gen. Johnson Gony Bilieu was the commander of the SPLA Sector Two in Malakal. Of the eight (8) divisions of the SPLA, three were headed by the Nuer. Gen. James Koang Chuol was the commander of SPLA Division 4 in Bentiu; Gen. Peter Gatdet Yak was the commander of SPLA Division 8 in Bor, while Gen. Yien Makuach Mut was the commander of SPLA Division 6 in Yambio. Of the two directors of national security (internal and external), Gen. Thomas Duoth was in charge of external security. Moreover, 70% of the national army was reportedly composed of Nuer soldiers. And the vice president of the republic was also a Nuer.

How was it possible that a single community whose percentage share of the national population is merely 19% would account for such a lion share of the national army in a nation of “64 tribes”? The spectacular and magnificent success of the South-South dialogue, what the South Sudanese intellectual and politician, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, has dubbed as the “Big Tent Policy” of President Salva Kiir. (more…)


Responding to JOHN PEN Article: “Taking War to the People Through the 32-State Referendum and his claim that the Khartoum Agreement is too Weak Compared to 2015 ARCRSS” 

By Nathaniel Pierino; Head of IO Governance Team, IGAD HLRF

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

Saturday, July 28, 2018 (PW) — Thank you very much for your article John. I have this observations in your article;

  1. You and a consortium of your colleagues indeed have been in Khartoum city but never at the venue in Sobba. I remember seeing you once or twice in the entire one month or more before you “quit”. But you are able to put up this splendid article laden with “value addition. Your colleagues in the venue as well couldn’t do much because of the less attention given to them by the mediators. The fact that there has never been plenary in the talks. They were not part of the discussions we had unlike in Addis Ababa where they attended plenary sessions. Therefore It may not be accurate to conclude thus.
  2. “Taking war to the people” is appropriate description I can’t agree with you more. You should have added that War is as old as human society. From the time man left his solitary confinement to establish a community of whatever description war was invented as an industry to mitigate injustice, oppression, deprivations etc. when it became costly people again invented diplomacy (dialogue) to handle disagreements and war. Note that when diplomacy fails there will be war. Every party to war will seek to ensure advantage of numbers and weaponry. If “war is taken to the people” in South Sudan, I wouldn’t want to over state which party to the conflict at hand scored in this respect. This takes me to your point that;

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SSOA Press Release – Peter Gatdet suspended for initialing the Khartoum deal (PDF)


The “Nuer Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 2)

By PaanLuel Wël, Kongor, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, July 21, 2018 (PW) — This article will examine the role of the “Nuer Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the current civil war in South Sudan. The “Nuer Factor” can be expressed as follows: The fate of South Sudan is always bright and promising whenever the Nuer is contented, happy and supportive of the leadership of South Sudan; the fate of South Sudan is often dim and precarious whenever the Nuer is jilted, unhappy and against the leadership of the nation.

This is not so much a quest to repaying an ancient debt as it is about understanding and appreciating the role of the “Nuer question” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 crisis and the current raging civil war in the Republic of South Sudan – a befitting tribute, and contribution, to the civilized national debate inaugurated by Hon. Arop Madut Arop and Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor.

The essence of the cultured national discourse initiated by Hon. Arop Madut Arop and Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor is a clear demonstration of the fact that South Sudanese are capable of rising above the partisan bickering and tribal politicking by electing to partake in a civilized national debate devoid of vitriolic attacks, tribal pandering and slanderous name callings.

More importantly, it is crucial that the people of South Sudan should clearly understand and appreciate the fact that the proposed sharing of power and security arrangements under the revitalized ARCSS will not and cannot be a substitute to resolving the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 that ignited the present intractable conflict in South Sudan. (more…)


CEPO Fact Sheet on the Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on GovernanceCEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 2CEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 3CEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 4CEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 55 vps of south sudan5 VPs of South Sudan


By Roger Alfred Yoron Modi, Kampala, Uganda

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Tuesday, July 17, 2018 (PW) — A Revised Entebbe Proposal released yesterday in Khartoum as part of the Igad-led High Level Revitalization Forum HLRF of the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan ARCSS provides, among others, for creation of Five Vice Presidents, 550 members of a Transitional National Legislative Assembly TNLA and 35 cabinet ministers in the young nation.

First, having a big government is very expensive indeed. But the South Sudan war itself has been very unique in nature and may require a very expensive solution such as the proposed big government. Some opposition and members of the society are calling for a lean government saying the big government in the proposal is very expensive to maintain.

For me, I see their concerns as genuine. However, the latest proposal is also very clear in Article 6.2 that “the high number of members of the Executive and TNLA is agreed to be exceptional and for the purposes of the Transitional Period only. The principle of lean government and an assembly that follows the internationally recognized proportions of population to members of parliament shall be observed beyond the Transitional Period.” So that is taken care of, at least with regards to future government. (more…)


The “Fundamental Factors” in the root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 1)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

Sunday, July 15, 2018 (PW) — Five years into the political, military, economic and humanitarian crisis in South Sudan, and peace is still a distant chimera to the beleaguered souls caught up in the vicious conflict across the country. One glimmer of hope, so far, has been that the High-Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) of the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS), under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Agency on Development (IGAD), would offer a viable solution to the intractable conflict in South Sudan.

While much was, and still is, predicated on the hard political compromises and security arrangements that the leaders of the warring parties – particularly President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar – are, and will be, prepared to make, the expectation was that the Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) would be promptly negotiated, honestly signed and faithfully adhered to by the warring parties. The subsequent phase would have been to craft a feasible political resolution of the debilitating crisis in form of a revitalized, expanded and inclusive Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU) based in Juba, South Sudan, with security guarantees to all leaders of the warring parties.

However, the fate of the IGAD-led High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) of the 2015 peace accord still hangs in the air, precariously, as phase two of the Khartoum round of peace talks was abruptly adjourned to next Tuesday, the 17th of July 2018, owing to continued irreconcilable differences over the fundamental issues of governance, couple with lingering doubts related to the signed security arrangements and permanent ceasefire agreements. (more…)


CEPO Fact Sheet - The Post Entebbe Power Sharing ProposalCEPO Fact Sheet - The Permanent Ceasefire and Security Arrangement


By Dr. Amon Wantok, Juba, South Sudan

Monday, July 2, 2018 (PW) — Comrade Salva Kiir Mayardit,  Comrade Dr Riek  Machar Teny, the entire leadership of South Sudan including our ladies; I got up at 5:00 a.m and opened the TV in my sitting room. Suddenly, I saw the leaders of South Sudan at the table with Sudan’s leader Omar el Bashir signing the peace deal; Salva on the right, Omar in the middle and Riek  Machar on the left.

After that all got up and raised their hands with Bashir in jubilation. They sat and the first opportunity was given to Riek  to comment and make his pledges which he did for permanent peace. Salva had his turn and pledged the respect for everlasting peace. The most important component was the permanent ceasefire.

After hearing all those pledges and particularly the ceasefire, I was amazed and astonished which caused me to jump up forgetting my sickness and added that the ceasefire should include animals and the birds that have migrated out of the country. It should be a glorious respect for everyone and everything including the forest that holds all kinds of vegetation and the environment that envelopes us. (more…)


“It is our survival that is at stake. Therefore, survival itself, if nothing else, will force us to fully implement this document,” Dr. John Garang, Nairobi, 2002, during the reunion between Riek Machar and the SPLM.

“To your question about whether we, Dr. John Garang and Dr. Riek Machar, are now really reconciled and reunited and whether we are therefore going to honor this peace agreement unlike the 1993 Washington Agreement that you said to have been dishonored by us: my answer is YES, we are serious to abide by it. The agreement does not belong to us, both leadership of the two movements, it belongs to you; it belongs to the people. And so in its implementations, honoring or dishonoring of the agreement, it will be your responsibility as well to hold us to it, as well as it is our responsibility to give guidance with respect to its implementations. Otherwise, as Dr. Riek said, we have suffered long enough, eleven years of suffering, of confusion and of aimless infighting. So the situation as of now, as we said in the signed reconciliation document, it is our survival that is at stake. Therefore, survival itself, if nothing else, will force us to fully implement this document.” THE PEACE AND RECONCILIATION ADDRESS: DR. JOHN GARANG’S STATEMENT AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE PEACE AND RECONCILIATION PROCESS BETWEEN THE SPLM/A AND THE SPDF OF DR. RIEK MACHAR TENY, NAIROBI, KENYA, JANUARY 5-6, 2002 


IGAD Summit concludes with agreement still elusive. Key takeaways: (1) Machar’s placed in new TGONU unconfirmed, but he is now – more or less a free man, (2) Power-sharing arrangements continue to defy solution, (3) Ethiopia hands over the peace process to others. The new PM made it clear that Ethiopia would relinquish its chairmanship of IGAD. ‘This is the first and last IGAD Summit that I chair’, he declared. Dated 21 June 2018

Strutural Complexity for South Sudan Peace Process

Saturday, June 23, 2018 (PW) — The Summit meeting of IGAD Heads of State was concluded today (21 June 2018) within a few hours agreeing to continue the peace process in follow up meetings in Khartoum and Nairobi. Prior to the Summit, foreign ministers met to hear the report of IGAD Special Envoy Ismael Wais. He explained the steps taken over the past month to narrow the differences between the parties – the Government (TGONU), the SPLM-IO and the opposition South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA).

The Council of Ministers, which had been expected to endorse the ‘Bridging Proposal’ drafted by IGAD surprised many with Sudan suggesting that rather than endorse a proposal and demand that the parties ‘take it or leave it,’ that the Summit be apprised of the situation and decide on how to proceed. While Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia backed Ethiopia in supporting the full endorsement of the IGAD proposal Sudan, a doubtful Uganda, and lukewarm Kenya were inclined go let the IGAD Summit decide on it without the full endorsement of the Council of Ministers. (more…)


Lam Akol and Salva Kiir

President Kiir jokes with Dr. Lam Akol as Madam Awut Achuil looks on in total awe and President Bashir chuckles away, June 22, 2018, in Addis Ababa

Friday, June 22, 2018 (PW) — “One outstanding point that needs to be clarified to the people of South Sudan is that President Salva Kiir is not ready—he is not ready in anyway—to work with Riek Machar in the next transitional period. This is simply because we have had enough of him since 91, 2013, 2016. All these are problems caused by Dr Riek Machar to the people of South Sudan. So many people lost their lives, so many people are refugees, so many people are displaced, and we don’t want that scenario to repeat itself again. We don’t want Juba to be deserted. We want our people to live in peace and harmony. Riek Machar should wait for elections and that is our position. Riek Machar is welcomed, he is a South Sudanese citizen, he can come to South Sudan but [President Salva Kiir] will not be working with him in the would-be transitional government of national unity. When President Salva Kiir agreed that Riek Machar should come here, the agreement between him and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister is that as soon as they finish the meeting, Riek Machar goes back to South Africa. But as of now his status seems to be under discussion now by the summit, so we will know what the final position of the summit is. But our position has been that if he is not going to South Africa, then the decision of IGAD heads of states and governments should be implemented. And that is if he is not going to South Africa then he should be in one of those states that is not a member of IGAD and not neighbouring South Sudan. You should understand that there is a difference between face-to-face talks and between greeting one another. Politically, we don’t want Riek Machar, but he is a South Sudanese, so socially we interact with him.”

Courtesy of The National Courier


By Africa Center for Strategic Studies

RSS Flag

A young South Sudanese girl poses with the flag of South Sudan

Thursday, June 07, 2018 (PW) — The internal conflict and resulting humanitarian crisis embroiling South Sudan since December 2013 have exposed the country’s fragility. A weak national identity, ethnically based violence, a legacy of violent conflict resolution, personalized and patronage-based politics, weak institutional checks on the abuse of power, and the absence of encompassing leadership, among other factors, all pose obstacles to peace-building. As a result, envisaging a stable South Sudan has become increasingly difficult for many South Sudanese and external observers. With regional and international diplomacy rightly focused on negotiating an immediate end to hostilities, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has asked a selection of South Sudanese and international scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders to share their visions of the strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of dissimilation to a more stable reality. These visions, taken individually and collectively, are intended to help sketch out some of the priorities and prerequisites for transforming today’s highly fragmented security landscape in South Sudan to one in which its citizens are safe in their own country and are protected from external threats.

  1. Three Trajectories Facing South Sudan By Dr. Luka Kuol
  2. Context and the Limits of International Engagement in Realizing Durable Stability in South Sudan, By Dr. Lauren Hutton
  3. Taming the Dominant Gun Class in South Sudan, By Dr. Majak D’Agoôt
  4. Durable Stability in South Sudan: What Are the Prerequisites?, By Dr. Phillip Kasaija Apuuli
  5. Security Sector Stabilization: A Prerequisite for Political Stability in South Sudan, By Dr. Remember Miamingi
  6. Confronting the Challenges of South Sudan’s Security Sector: A Practitioner Perspective, By Gen. Kuol Deim Kuol
  7. Blurring the Lines: Ethnicity, Governance, and Stability in South Sudan, By Dr. Lauren Hutton
  8. The Rule of Law and the Role of Customary Courts in Stabilizing South Sudan, By Dr. Godfrey Musila
  9. Navigating the Competing Interests of Regional Actors in South Sudan, By Dr. Luka Kuol

The articles in this series do not necessarily reflect the views of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

The opinion expressed here is solely the view of the writer. The veracity of any claim made is the responsibility of the author, not PaanLuel Wël Media (PW) website. If you want to submit an opinion article, commentary or news analysis, please email it to paanluel2011@gmail.com. PaanLuel Wël Media (PW) website do reserve the right to edit or reject material before publication. Please include your full name, a short biography, email address, city and the country you are writing from.


By Amb John Kassara Koang Nhial, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Saturday, May 26, 2018 (PW) — Riek Machar have failed and placed the entire Nuer Community into an ugly shape. The nature of Riek Machar’s politics have destroyed both the political career, dignity, and the culture of Nuer Community.

For instance; Nuer Community before Riek Machar’s war of 1991, the Nuer tribe were known worldwide as ” WARRIORS ” , brave fighting men and women, people with good culture and dignity.

After Riek Machar’s war of 1991, Riek Machar’s reckless, unsuccessful and cowardice politics have made the Nuer Community to be a choatic tribe who just make choas out of blue. Riek Machar’s politics have made the Nuer Community coward who starts the war and end up surrendering themselves to what they termed as an ” ENEMY “.

Riek Machar’s politics made us a community of no respect where you fine an elders abusing and insulting the young ones as well as the young one abusing and insulting an elder. (more…)


PRESS RELEASE : SPLM-IO Press Release on THE IGAD “A BRIDGING PROPOSAL”

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