Archive for the ‘December 2013 Crisis’ Category


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The National Housing and Population census could be viable determining factor for number of states in South Sudan: It can neither be IBC nor IGAD’s decision.

By Adv. Bol Chol Kucdit, Juba, South Sudan

Map of 28 states

Friday, 28 June 2019 (PW) — It appeared recently that the IBC that was established under terms of R-ARCSS, 2018 reached stalemate as to the number of states in South Sudan. The preliminary report of their work indicated the IBC failed to adopt (10) states in their voting exercise by lack of one vote to meet the qualified majority stipulated under R-ARCSS. The preliminary report also suggested that the IBC referred the matter of states to IGAD for further consideration.

Though everything in this country is accepted for the sake of peace which may turn out to be war at any hour, I beg to share a different view that the R-ACRSS created a sort of condominium ad hoc body called IBC to decide some important national issues for South Sudanese. The IBC in fact has membership of (10) South Sudanese that were appointed by parties to R-ARCSS respectively with different ratios. The other (5) members were appointed by African Union High-Level Ad hoc Committee on South Sudan mainly from South Africa, Nigeria, Chad, Rwanda and Algeria. The membership of these foreign countries beats my reasoning as to why should our national affairs be decided by foreigners.

The inclusion of South Sudanese in the committee was a matter of formality but the actual control of the process was a kin to 1947 Juba conference event. It was just meant to confirm the premeditated decision in favour of colonist. The IBC which is chaired by a foreigner was given unnecessary powers to collect opinions of South Sudanese as to how many states do they want. They were also tasked to adopt any number of states through voting and their decision should be binding on parties to R-ARCSS and entire citizens of South Sudan. They were also tasked to restructure council of states in National parliament after redrawing new states’ boundaries.

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SPLM Message to Diaspora No. 03/2019: Dear Comrades from the SPLM Diaspora Chapters

Monday, March 4, 2019 (PW) — Comradeship greetings to you all, saluting and wishing you ahead of time a very Happy Easter. The SPLM activities in South Sudan and all over have been geared towards achieving total peace and reconciliation in our beloved country. February had continued witnessing the arrival of our brothers and sisters who were fighting against the government and sovereignty of our country.

Their messages on arrival have been: “ Never again shall we fight each other; Democracy will be the way of political life in the country; South Sudan first and everything else follows… all those who are still holding out under foreign influence should come home as well”. We are pleased that everyone has realised peace as such.

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Public Service Announcement: The Failure of the SPLM and the Illusion of SPLM Reunification

By Captain Mabior Garang de Mabior, Nairobi, Kenya

Saturday, February 23, 2019 (PW) — Fellow South Sudanese, as the SPLM aristocracy continues to make political maneuvers to help them stay in power, it is important that our people remain vigilant in order to avoid a complete loss of their hard-won struggle for self-determination. It would be marvelous if the wounds inflicted on our people could be healed magically by the SPLM reunification. The problem with the reunification however, is that the SPLM reunification comes partly as a result of a misdiagnosis of the problem and partly as a tactic by the SPLM(IG) to isolate the SPLM/SPLA(IO).

This is part of the regimes long term strategy, it is part of their futile attempts to continue usurping the people’s power. The catalyst to the current civil war, as we all know, was the failure of leadership in the SPLM. What has changed since December 6, 2013 that justifies this reunification that can convince the public their failures have been overcome? In order to have a more concrete understanding of this failure, it is paramount that we breakdown the genesis of this failure:

Beloved Countrymen/women!

1. The genesis of the SPLM leadership failure can be traced back to the unfortunate manner in which the first Chairperson of the SPLM, Dr. John Garang de Mabior, met his end.

2. To this day, the leadership which emerged and formed the government after the demise of our first Chairman, has never made public the results of the investigation into the crash which killed him. (more…)


By Mayen Dengdit, Denver-Colorado, USA

face of god

Sunday, December 16, 2018 (PW) —- In the early morning of December 16th (according to western conception of night and day), which is the final hours of the night  of December 15th (according to African conception of day and night), I woke up from a strange dream . As human beings, we all have dreams, yet we loose details to tangible life issues and challenges; thereby relegating our dreams into oblivion.

But this dream was different and, according to me at least, worth sharing, since it’s about God and suffering women and children in South Sudan. But more so, because, as my close family member with whom I shared it morning told me: “seeing the face of God is  one of the great blessings of life” to me and the people I dreamed off. Without further ado, this was my dream, which I immediately put down writing.

 I dreamed that I was taking humanitarian aid to the Upper Nile region of South Sudan. I was on a wooden mid-sized boat with a few other people  (we were 9 in total on board), moving on the Nile and our mission was to take food items, including Corn Soya Blend (CSB), to malnourished people (women and children in particular) in isolated islands in the wetlands of Upper Nile. It was after sunset and was getting darker and ominous. (more…)


Khartoum Declaration Agreement: The Signed Copy of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCISS), 12 September 2018  (PDF)

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

CEPO Fact Sheet on the Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance


The Riek Machar Factor in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 5)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, September 8, 2018 (PW) — This article will examine the pivotal role of the “Riek Machar Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the prevailing civil war in the Republic of South Sudan. In Kenya, to assert that powerful forces within the political, economic and security establishments of the Kikuyu nation have practically succeeded to frustrate and thwart Raila Odinga from assuming the presidency of Kenya is to state the obvious. Similarly, in South Sudan, to argue that two powerful constituencies, comprising of the historical leadership of the SPLM/SPLA and the Dinka nation, have conspired to oppose and prevent Riek Machar’s presidency in the Republic of South Sudan, would be an understatement.

This is the contextual meaning of the Riek Machar factor in the South Sudanese national conflict. Therefore, the fundamental root cause of the December 2013 Crisis, and the current civil war, is two-fold. First and foremost, the spirited attempt by those powerful constituencies to impede and obstruct Riek Machar from assuming the chairmanship of the SPLM, and thus the presidency of the republic, triggered the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war. Secondly, the strong conviction by Riek Machar to fight and defeat those powerful forces bitterly opposed to his resolve to become the second president of South Sudan, ignited the December 2013 Crisis and the devastating civil war in the country.

Alternatively, the confluence of the two factors – the strong determination by the historical leadership of the SPLM/SPLA and powerful forces within the Dinka nation to oppose and block Riek Machar from assuming the presidency of South Sudan, couple with the firm decision by Riek Machar to fight and defeat those two powerful constituencies – might have hastened and sparked the December 2013 Crisis, which later mutated into the ongoing distressing civil war in the Republic of South Sudan.

Therefore, this article will argue that the strong resistance to, and the fervent support for, Riek Machar’s presidency constitutes and defines the current national conflict, and its appreciation holds the key to a negotiated resolution of the 5-year old civil war in South Sudan. (more…)


The “SPLM/SPLA Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 4)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, August 18, 2018 (PW) — “Politics,” declares Carl von Clausewitz, the former Prussian general and military theorist, “is the continuation of war by other means.” The great Athenian historian and general, Thucydides, the author of The History of the Peloponnesian War, added that, in warfare, as in politics, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” And like any other forms and means of warfare, politics invariably produces both losers who “suffer what they must” and winners who “do what they can”. The acrimonious political fallout within the ruling SPLM party, which preceded and triggered the December 2013 crisis and the present destructive civil war in South Sudan, is a classic case study of Carl von Clausewitz’s aphorism that politics is war by other means, with sullen losers and haughty winners.

Underpinning the power struggle that precipitated the ongoing civil war is the prevailing contention from the opposition groups, as advanced and defended by Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor, that the December 2013 crisis was generated by President Kiir’s fateful decision to eschew democratic institutions and processes by resorting to draconian and undemocratic means to preserve and exercise power in the country. To the government, the seditious machinations by the power hungry Riek Machar to take power by force define and constitute the fundamental root cause of the December 2013 crisis and the raging distractive civil war. In contrast, the veteran South Sudanese journalist, author and politician, Hon. Arop Madut Arop, maintains that the fundamental root cause of the December 2103 crisis was the institutional failure by the SPLM party to attain democratic transformation, as exemplified by the ambiguity of the presidential term limits which triggered political wrangling within the ruling party.

Therefore, this article will constructively respond to, and critically analyze, both Hon. Arop Madut Arop’s article, “How Political Wrangling in the Ruling SPLM Party Wrecked South Sudan Apart in 2013” and Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor’s article, “The Root Cause of the December 2013 Crisis in South Sudan: The SPLM/SPLA Factor.” The evaluation and critiquing will be done on the basis of what is legal and democratic as the opposition leaders are fond of presenting their political actions preceding the December 2013 crisis, and what is a threat to national security as the government often portrays the political maneuvers of the opposition leaders on the eve of December 2013 crisis and the current conflict.

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CEPO Fact Sheet on the Signed Khartoum Peace Agreement on the Revitalization of the 2015 ARCSS

CEPO Fact Sheet on the Signed Khartoum Peace Agreement on the Revitalization of the 2015 ARCSS

999D624A-D298-44E1-98EF-A889FCB14B7B.jpeg


KPA1

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The “Big Tent Policy Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 3)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, August 04, 2018 (PW) — On the 4th of July, 2013, the Vice President of South Sudan, Dr. Riek Machar, few hours after returning from Khartoum, summoned the Guardian newspaper into his office, denounced his boss, President Kiir, as incompetent and corrupt, and then declared his interest in contesting for the office of the president in the 2015 presidential election. While few people had any inkling as to why Dr. Riek Machar would declare a public revolt against his boss of 10 years, what is crystal clear though was that this was at a time when the Nuer was at the peak of their military predominance in the Republic of South Sudan, both at the top echelon, as well as among the rank and file, of the national army.

Gen. James Hoth Mai was the Chief of Staff of the SPLA, while John Koang Nyuon was the Minister for Defense. Of the three (3) sectors of the SPLA, two were headed by the Nuer. Gen. Charles Lam Chuol was the commander of the SPLA Sector Three in Torit, while Gen. Johnson Gony Bilieu was the commander of the SPLA Sector Two in Malakal. Of the eight (8) divisions of the SPLA, three were headed by the Nuer. Gen. James Koang Chuol was the commander of SPLA Division 4 in Bentiu; Gen. Peter Gatdet Yak was the commander of SPLA Division 8 in Bor, while Gen. Yien Makuach Mut was the commander of SPLA Division 6 in Yambio. Of the two directors of national security (internal and external), Gen. Thomas Duoth was in charge of external security. Moreover, 70% of the national army was reportedly composed of Nuer soldiers. And the vice president of the republic was also a Nuer.

How was it possible that a single community whose percentage share of the national population is merely 19% would account for such a lion share of the national army in a nation of “64 tribes”? The spectacular and magnificent success of the South-South dialogue, what the South Sudanese intellectual and politician, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, has dubbed as the “Big Tent Policy” of President Salva Kiir. (more…)


Responding to JOHN PEN Article: “Taking War to the People Through the 32-State Referendum and his claim that the Khartoum Agreement is too Weak Compared to 2015 ARCRSS” 

By Nathaniel Pierino; Head of IO Governance Team, IGAD HLRF

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

CEPO Fact sheet on the final proposal on outstanding issues on governance

Saturday, July 28, 2018 (PW) — Thank you very much for your article John. I have this observations in your article;

  1. You and a consortium of your colleagues indeed have been in Khartoum city but never at the venue in Sobba. I remember seeing you once or twice in the entire one month or more before you “quit”. But you are able to put up this splendid article laden with “value addition. Your colleagues in the venue as well couldn’t do much because of the less attention given to them by the mediators. The fact that there has never been plenary in the talks. They were not part of the discussions we had unlike in Addis Ababa where they attended plenary sessions. Therefore It may not be accurate to conclude thus.
  2. “Taking war to the people” is appropriate description I can’t agree with you more. You should have added that War is as old as human society. From the time man left his solitary confinement to establish a community of whatever description war was invented as an industry to mitigate injustice, oppression, deprivations etc. when it became costly people again invented diplomacy (dialogue) to handle disagreements and war. Note that when diplomacy fails there will be war. Every party to war will seek to ensure advantage of numbers and weaponry. If “war is taken to the people” in South Sudan, I wouldn’t want to over state which party to the conflict at hand scored in this respect. This takes me to your point that;

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SSOA Press Release – Peter Gatdet suspended for initialing the Khartoum deal (PDF)


The “Nuer Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 2)

By PaanLuel Wël, Kongor, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

  1. Introduction

Saturday, July 21, 2018 (PW) — This article will examine the role of the “Nuer Factor” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the current civil war in South Sudan. The “Nuer Factor” can be expressed as follows: The fate of South Sudan is always bright and promising whenever the Nuer is contented, happy and supportive of the leadership of South Sudan; the fate of South Sudan is often dim and precarious whenever the Nuer is jilted, unhappy and against the leadership of the nation.

This is not so much a quest to repaying an ancient debt as it is about understanding and appreciating the role of the “Nuer question” in the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 crisis and the current raging civil war in the Republic of South Sudan – a befitting tribute, and contribution, to the civilized national debate inaugurated by Hon. Arop Madut Arop and Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor.

The essence of the cultured national discourse initiated by Hon. Arop Madut Arop and Comrade Mabioor Garang de Mabioor is a clear demonstration of the fact that South Sudanese are capable of rising above the partisan bickering and tribal politicking by electing to partake in a civilized national debate devoid of vitriolic attacks, tribal pandering and slanderous name callings.

More importantly, it is crucial that the people of South Sudan should clearly understand and appreciate the fact that the proposed sharing of power and security arrangements under the revitalized ARCSS will not and cannot be a substitute to resolving the fundamental root causes of the December 2013 that ignited the present intractable conflict in South Sudan. (more…)


CEPO Fact Sheet on the Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on GovernanceCEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 2CEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 3CEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 4CEPO Fact Sheet on Expected Agreement on Outstanding Issues on Governance 55 vps of south sudan5 VPs of South Sudan


By Roger Alfred Yoron Modi, Kampala, Uganda

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Tuesday, July 17, 2018 (PW) — A Revised Entebbe Proposal released yesterday in Khartoum as part of the Igad-led High Level Revitalization Forum HLRF of the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan ARCSS provides, among others, for creation of Five Vice Presidents, 550 members of a Transitional National Legislative Assembly TNLA and 35 cabinet ministers in the young nation.

First, having a big government is very expensive indeed. But the South Sudan war itself has been very unique in nature and may require a very expensive solution such as the proposed big government. Some opposition and members of the society are calling for a lean government saying the big government in the proposal is very expensive to maintain.

For me, I see their concerns as genuine. However, the latest proposal is also very clear in Article 6.2 that “the high number of members of the Executive and TNLA is agreed to be exceptional and for the purposes of the Transitional Period only. The principle of lean government and an assembly that follows the internationally recognized proportions of population to members of parliament shall be observed beyond the Transitional Period.” So that is taken care of, at least with regards to future government. (more…)


The “Fundamental Factors” in the root causes of the December 2013 Crisis and the present civil war in the Republic of South Sudan (Part 1)

By PaanLuel Wël, Juba, South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

The Flag of the Republic of South Sudan

Sunday, July 15, 2018 (PW) — Five years into the political, military, economic and humanitarian crisis in South Sudan, and peace is still a distant chimera to the beleaguered souls caught up in the vicious conflict across the country. One glimmer of hope, so far, has been that the High-Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) of the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS), under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Agency on Development (IGAD), would offer a viable solution to the intractable conflict in South Sudan.

While much was, and still is, predicated on the hard political compromises and security arrangements that the leaders of the warring parties – particularly President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar – are, and will be, prepared to make, the expectation was that the Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) would be promptly negotiated, honestly signed and faithfully adhered to by the warring parties. The subsequent phase would have been to craft a feasible political resolution of the debilitating crisis in form of a revitalized, expanded and inclusive Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU) based in Juba, South Sudan, with security guarantees to all leaders of the warring parties.

However, the fate of the IGAD-led High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) of the 2015 peace accord still hangs in the air, precariously, as phase two of the Khartoum round of peace talks was abruptly adjourned to next Tuesday, the 17th of July 2018, owing to continued irreconcilable differences over the fundamental issues of governance, couple with lingering doubts related to the signed security arrangements and permanent ceasefire agreements. (more…)


CEPO Fact Sheet - The Post Entebbe Power Sharing ProposalCEPO Fact Sheet - The Permanent Ceasefire and Security Arrangement