Military Stalemate between the Gov’t and the Rebel Forces on the Ground
Neither the SPLA nor the rebels has the ability to successfully defend towns they control
By Malith Alier
The past three days constitute a special moment for the SPLA since December 15 twenty thirteen. The consecutive capture of Ulang, Nasir and Bentiu in three days is a jewel in the crown of the new Chief of General Staff (COGS) who was installed hardly a week ago. General Awan now has something to boast about as he embarks on the mission and mandate of securing and protecting dear South Sudan from enemies of peace.
It is one thing to take up arms and it is a different thing to claim victory with less preparations. The rebels have overrun towns and cities in greater Upper Nile in an impromptu manner; under whatever means they used to capture towns, the whole world has caught a glimpse of the fight against the well prepared soldiers on the government side. The rebels have so far tested sweet revenge they yearned against the government and its supporters. Revenge was one of the unpublished objectives of the rebels as expressed by generals who defected and turned their back on their constitutional obligation enshrined in the country’s constitution.
The war turned nastier and the horrors of the conflict are now felt by everybody in the country. The loss of life and property, displacement, destitution along with hosts of other elements of desperation will be difficult to erase in many generations’ memory. South Sudan is once again fully remilitarised to the chagrin of us all.
Many of us thought that the enemy of South Sudan comes from outside however; this assumption is unfounded based on this fully pledged brotherly confrontation. South Sudanese are the worst enemies of themselves. The ideals of liberation from colonialism failed to be realised for the same reasons. Chief among them is democratic transformation. Instead of being an ideal to be achieved together, democracy is now a bone of contention among the South Sudanese. In addition to this is the form of government, federal or decentralised. Further, is the argument in parties over leadership transition? No one was aware that intra SPLM quarrel would spill over and cause much bloodshed of thousands of innocent poor people of this country.
War is not the best way to solving human problems. It complicates matters farther and beyond control. The people of this country particularly the SPLM leaders learned nothing from many wars of the past. Wars poisoned relationships and increase mistrust among the parties beyond anyone’s imagination.
The divorce between Sudan and the Southern part continues to present difficulties simply because of bitter wars fought for nearly half a century. The modern war has acquired a new meaning because of advancement of technology and the issues of human rights violations. That is to say that the current war is different from the Sudan civil war ended about ten years ago.
The last capture of Bentiu was truly a pyrrhic Victoria to Riek Machar and his bloodthirsty rebels. For the first time since start of the conflict, the capture exposed true intentions of the rebellion (contumacy). Vengeance, insensitivity and lack of respect for human life and dignity are attributes to rebels and their leadership. It is now very hard for rebels to deny commitment of massacres in Bentiu based on ethnicity, national identity coupled with targeted killings based perceived support offered by certain quarters to opponents. Killings of hundreds of innocent civilians in the religious facilities, hospitals, schools and other sanctuaries in the town speak volumes of how the rebels have run amok.
The said atrocities are well documented by the UNMISS, the only body on the ground in rebelled control Bentiu. The current war has not only increased suffering to citizens but also brought shame upon all South Sudanese. It exposes selfish and ignorance professed by some politicians who do not hesitate to solve pertinent matters in peaceful fashion. The way to shed blood seems to be more appealing to them. However, they’ll end up being humiliated by outsiders or the people of South Sudan at the end of it all. Let them ignore this fact for their own peril.
Genocide is now feared in the country as the war atrocities progress. The use of radio FM by the rebels for the first time to disseminate hate messages receives serious attention not only from the media fraternity in the country but also from the government and international players concern with South Sudan conflict. The concerned actors realised that this same radio messages were employed in Rwanda in 1994 genocide.
The same was purported to have been used in Kenya during 2007 general elections causing violence and destruction to lives and property. Some people are now in The Hague for this matter. Therefore, the fears expressed by the actors are not unfounded. South Sudan is indeed in danger of going down the Rwandan path if no action is taken right now, the earlier the better.
The issue of IDPs is a major concern each time these towns change hands. Some IDPs are known to play a cat and mouth game during these occasions. These particular IDPs swap uniform for civilian clothes when the government rolls in and verse versa when the rebels are in control. This is a major concern to some people who when as far as questioning UNMISS for such behaviour. The UNMISS answer was that they have no knowledge of such people. It further said that even if anyone was in military uniform and has chosen to be under UNMISS he/she deserves that protection accorded by UNMISS as long as they do not have weapons with them. Fair dinkum, let them rest and join the rebellion when they fell strong.
If at the current rate the towns and cities exchange hands, many towns would exchange hands twenty times if this war were to last over ten or twenty years down the line. It was never seen before in the old Sudan and beyond for an army unable to defend areas under its control. Even the bush army was able to defend towns like Boma successfully on many occasions from the enemy. Many lives are needlessly lost because of this apparent weakness to defend towns. They say that prevention is better than cure.
Prevent more towns from rebel capture and you would have prevented half of possible casualties that may be incurred on the offensive. The current Chief of general staff should work towards this. To prevent the current towns under government control from recapture. This could stem unnecessary destruction and it is the ultimate responsibility of the SPLA.
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